The Importance of the 5th Overall Pick

LDN-L-PREP-PCA-0605
PCA – LA Daily News Photo

by Mason McRae 

 Last week I dropped a fifth version (Link Below) of my 2020 MLB Mock Draft, where I had the Jays taking Texas A&M left-handed pitcher Asa Lacey fifth overall. There’s still lots of time until the Jays will have to select somebody, but if the Draft were today – mostly everybody is certain the Jays would end up with one of three college prospects; Garrett Mitchell, Nick Gonzales, or Asa Lacey.

 

Link for Mock Draft: https://futurebluejays.com/2020/01/23/2020-mlb-mock-draft-5-0/

 

  Come June, the Blue Jays will have three (no. 5, no. 42, and no. 79) draft-picks in the top-100. Today I’ll only be looking at the most important one, the 5th overall pick.

 

The Last time Toronto selected this high, they took the 8th highest WAR contributor in Franchise History – Vernon Wells. The Jays can’t afford to mess up on a draft-pick of this magnitude. Now Let’s look at candidates for the fifth overall pick.

 

My Candidates for the Fifth Overall Pick

 

If the draft were today and he was on the board still, I would want Pete Crow-Armstrong and my reasoning is simple. He’d be my best player available (no. 4 in class), a system fit, and the best center fielder we’ve had since there last fifth overall pick, as mentioned above, Vernon Wells.

 

His profile is similar to that of 2019 16th-Overall Pick, and recently proclaimed no. 89 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline – Corbin Carroll, but with much more power. Pete or PCA, whichever you choose to call him, is what scouts call a “toolsy player”. He has plus-plus speed, a plus-plus glove, plus-hit tool, and 55 Power tool. There’s not a single thing Pete can’t do, he was a highlight reel in CF at the 18U world championship overseas.

 

If PCA so happened to get taken, or maybe the Jays passed on him, the next player on my wishlist at no. 5 is either Austin Hendrick or Garrett Mitchell. Hendrick has the highest power-tool in the class, and one of the quickest bats in the class. He’s a pregame show on his own and has the tools idolized in today’s league, plus-plus power, plus-arm and well above average athleticism. 

 

There’s a chance Hendrick goes at pick 4, which is why I’d live with a Garrett Mitchell selection. In my recent mock, I had him going to the Giants at pick 13, and compared him to Kevin Pillar. The similarities between the two are bad approaches, above average gloves, and plus-speed. The difference is Mitchell’s power tool being much better then Pillar’s, which is why he’s going to be first-rounder.

 

Possible Fifth Overall Pick Selections I Don’t Want

 

I’ve been quite vocal about my displeasures of a possible Asa Lacey selection at 5, and I’ve even had him going fifth overall to the Jays in both of my last two mock drafts. 

 

Why I don’t want Asa is because of reasons even FanGraphs has agreed with, his relief risk. FanGraph’s TLDR on Asa is the following: 

 

“Lacy has been working 92-95 this spring, mixing in an above average breaker, but there’s some relief risk.”

 

His lack of an above average secondary-pitch is bothersome, and his slightly above average command doesn’t make his case any better. On twitter, I tweeted “If the fifth overall pick in the best draft class since 2011 lands you a fringe no. 2 starter, then I’ll be disappointed.” and I still stand by it. 

 

Nick Gonzales is another name floating around the Jays, a Nick Madrigal type player with a 60-hit tool and average power tool. I’ve had Gonzales as a first-rounder well before anybody else, and well before he stepped on a Cape Cod field. I’ve always thought of him as a late-first-rounder. My problem is that he’ll be a below average second baseman who won’t hit for power.

 

What if one of the top three players falls to the Jays?

 

You take whoever it is, simple as that.

 

To expand on it, the only player of  Torkelson, Hancock, and Martin that could fall to the Jays is Spencer Torkelson. Mainly because of his RR1B profile,  some teams don’t think is deserving of a top-3 pick. If Torkelson falls to the Jays, they should be all over him, obviously. He’s a game-wrecking hitter with elite traits across the board. He’d be much better than that of any prospect still available as well.

2 thoughts on “The Importance of the 5th Overall Pick

  1. Hi, I’m just wondering why you have Pete Crow-Armstrong in your mock draft as going at number 16 in your mock draft if you value him as 4th best in this draft class.

    Like

    1. In the intro to the mock draft, I explained why.

      “My last four mock drafts have been purely based on my opinions only, which will change in this one as I factor in past draft tendencies and the general consensus in the scouting world.”

      He’s viewed as an early-teens talent by FG and a late 20s by BA. Which is why he went so late compared to my ranking of him.

      Like

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