Some evaluators will give you their Top 30, or even Top 50 prospects for a team.
Truth be told, the differences in terms of overall tools and MLB potential gets less and less the farther you go down an organization’s list of prospects, which is why it’s very tough to get past the Top 20.
Generally speaking, players in the 11-20 range are fringe MLBers, at least at this point in their careers. Some have produced solid bodies of work, but are at a point where they’ve all but reached their projection, while others have plenty of projection remaining, but are still a long way away. There’s always someone from this group who can make a tremendous leap forward, but the odds tend to be more with the guys in the Top 10.
As evidence of the rise in quality of the Blue Jays system over the past several years, this may be the most impressive group of prospects in this range they’ve produced in some time. Thanks to some trade deadline deals, there are a couple of new faces, too.
11. Cavan Biggio UT
Biggio broke out in a big year at New Hampshire in 2018, and bears further close watching next year.
The 2016 5th rounder attempted to put more loft into his swing last season, and then lowered his hands this season. The results were impressive – he led the Eastern League in Home Runs. He also led the league in walks, and just missed a Three True Outcomes triple crown by finishing second in Ks.
Biggio is a patient hitter, as evidenced by the number of walks. What keeps him from the upper echelon of prospects is that at 23, he’s probably hit his ceiling, and he doesn’t have the lengthy track record that other top prospects have. His defensive skills are also a consideration, as he has been described as a fringy defensive player – the Blue Jays have had him playing RF in Arizona in an attempt to build his versatility. Biggio’s swing can also be long, and Pitchers with sharper secondaries may take advantage of it at AAA or even MLB.
12. Patrick Murphy SP
The 2018 Florida State League Pitcher of the Year had a truly dominant year at High A, and will likely earn a spot on the 40-man roster next month. What seems to be keeping him off the prospect lists is a lengthy injury history, although he made 27 starts for Dunedin this year.
Murphy has upped his velo, hitting 100 mph with his fastball in August, the culmination of a steady increase all season. He pairs that FB with a hammer curve, but needs to develop a 3rd pitch.
Murphy gets lost a little bit in comparison to the other high-profile Starters in the system, but he should make for an interesting follow at AA next year.
13. David Paulino SP
A one-time top 100 prospect, Paulino has a starter’s mix of pitches, and has fanned better than a batter per inning in his MiLB career. Despite his injury history (13 starts over the past two seasons), Paulino still projects as a starter.
A stretch of good health at AAA would be the best case scenario for Paulino.
14. Hector Perez SP
Perez, like Paulino, came over in the Roberto Osuna deal from the Astros. He throws four pitches, all of them with some movement. Harnessing that movement has been a challenge for him, as his walk rate has consistently been in the double digits throughout his minor league career.
Perez’ future may lie in relief, where his mid to upper 90s fastball will play up, but the Blue Jays will likely give him an extended opportunity to pitch in a starting role.
15. Rowdy Tellez 1B
Tellez helped to put a season and a half of AAA disappointment behind him with a post All Star line of .306/.360/.497 that was hard to ignore, and resulted in a September promotion.
Tellez hit 9 Doubles in only 70 ABs during his September audition, but walked only twice. With Justin Smoak firmly ensconced at 1B for the time being, Tellez appears headed for another tour of the International League come next April, but he gives the Blue Jays some roster flexibility. With the team not likely to contend for a couple of seasons, Smoak could be dealt to upgrade other areas of the roster at some point, and Tellez could step into his role.
16. TJ Zeuch, SP
The 2016 1st rounder’s main weapon is a bowling ball sinker, which gets good downward plane due to his 6’7″ height. Zeuch can command all four of his pitches, but what seems to limit his projection to back-end starter is the fact that none of them grade as plus.
Zeuch rarely puts himself into difficult situations with walks, and he generates ground balls at about a 55-60% rate – he led the Eastern League with a 55.2%, and his 16.5 Line Drive rate was 3rd-lowest among qualifiers. Because he tends to pitch to contact, Zeuch will always need a solid defence behind him.
While he might not profile as an Ace, Zeuch has been an important part of some championship teams of late – New Hampshire this year, Dunedin last year, and an Arizona Fall League title (where he was the starting Pitcher of the final game) sandwiched in between.
17. Miguel Hiraldo SS
One of the top bats in the 2017 J2 class, Hiraldo slashed .313/.381/.453 in the Dominican Summer League – interestingly, the Blue Jays didn’t think he was ready for stateside play until August.
Baseball America‘s scouting report focuses on his bat:
Hiraldo has a knack for hitting and driving the ball with impact from a direct, compact swing. He doesn’t generate much separation with his hands to load his swing, but he has explosive hand speed that generates plus bat speed. He’s an aggressive hitter who mashes fastballs, with strong forearms and legs that he incorporates to generate average power. He’s a pull-heavy hitter who’s still improving his pitch recognition and selectivity.
Most reports suggest that while Hiraldo has the hands and arm for SS, his stocky build profiles better at 3B.
18. Travis Bergen RP
At the end of a conversation with Blue Jays President/CEO Mark Shapiro last fall, he was asked what a General Manager’s most difficult job was. “Developing Starting Pitching,” was his response, but with all due respect, given budget considerations and the volatile nature of relievers, building a bullpen may be a GM’s most daunting task.
The Blue Jays farm system has already made a solid contribution to the big club’s bullpen with relievers such as Ryan Tepara, Danny Barnes, and Tim Mayza. Another wave is coming, led by southpaw Bergen. Despite missing the better part of three seasons since being drafted in 2015, Bergen has been lights out at every stop over the past two seasons, most recently with New Hampshire.
Bergen tops out at 94 with his fastball, sitting 91-92. He commands both sides of the plate with it, along with his slider. Even though he fanned 74 in 56 innings at two levels this year, his best tool is his ability to avoid barrels. He keeps hitters off-balance with his sequencing, and is very tough to square up.
19. Yennsy Diaz SP
Diaz burst onto the radar last year with a scintillating debut in full season ball at Lansing, where he fanned 82 in 77 innings, mainly off the strength of a 96-97 FB that Midwest League hitters could not catch up with.
Sent back to Lansing to begin 2018, he fanned 10 hitters on Opening Day in 5.2 innings. Diaz was promoted to Dunedin after 9 starts, and while he continued to miss bats (11.6% SwStr rate), he didn’t notch as many Ks. He was holding his velo later into games this year, but was pitching more to contact.
Diaz often gets ahead of hitters by establishing a fastball down in the zone, then elevates when he gets two strikes. His best secondary pitch at the moment is his curve, which has progressed from a show me pitch to a true barrel dodger. His change-up is a pitch that pairs well with his fastball, but can be a little firm. How fast and far Diaz progresses (New Hampshire is his likely destination next April) will depend on how those secondaries continue to develop.
20. Jackson McClelland RP
You don’t tend to see many relievers on top prospect lists due to their volatility. When you have one who consistently hits triple digits, it’s worth a second look. Such is the case with McClelland, a 2015 draftee who has consistently added velo as he’s moved through the system.
McClelland has a deceptive delivery, and combined with his length, it makes it tough for hitters to pick up the ball coming out of his hand. He pairs his fastball with a slider and an ever-improving change-up. McClelland is still working on it, but he’s shown improved command this fall in Arizona.
Many people who knew Hunter Mense warned him about taking the hitting coach job at AA New Hampshire.
After a season in the Padres’ organization, Mense had been recommended for the position last off-season by the Blue Jays newly hired minor league hitting co-ordinator, Guillermo Martinez. Mense interviewed for the position, and two days later was offered the spot Player Development Director Gil Kim. In preparing for his interview, Mense had done his homework, and saw that top prospects Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette, among others, would likely be his charges. But some in Mense’s circle suggested he would be getting into a no-win situation if he took the job:
I talked a bunch of people and they’re like – Hunter, that’s not a good opportunity because you’ll have all the pressure in the world because the expectations that come along with coaching these guys is so high.
Nonetheless, when Kim called, Mense jumped at the opportunity. And in the end, he took a great deal away from the experience, which included coaching the best prospect in all of minor league baseball for half a season, and an Eastern League championship:
I got so much more out of those guys than they got out of me. Everyone of them. I learned so much more about hitting and about baseball and about coaching and professional baseball and everything that goes along with it from them. Way more than they learned from me so it was such a great opportunity and there’s no way I couldn’t take it.
Born in Liberty, MO, Mense was undrafted out of high school, so he went the collegiate route, attending the University of Missouri. Mense had a tremendous sophomore season, played for Team USA that summer, and after being named a pre-season 3rd team All American by Baseball America, he appeared to be a solid bet to be taken in the first 3-4 rounds of the 2007 MLB draft. Such was not to be the case for the Outfielder, however, and after getting off to a slow start, he found himself in a downward spiral, and in his own words, “I was hurting myself and the people around me.” Mense finished his junior season with a .258/.328/.390 line, and his draft stock dropped as a result. He lasted until the Marlins selected him in the 17th round.
Despite that disappointment, there were a couple of silver linings to that disappointing season. At this parent’s request, Mense came under the mentorship of Rick McGuire, who was Missouri’s track coach, and more importantly, was the well-regarded head of the school’s sports psychology department. Mense initially balked at the prospect of meeting with McGuire, but after spending several hours in conversation with him, he felt a great burden had been eased as a result:
I don’t necessarily remember exactly what we talked about or things that we did, or anything like that, but I just remember walking out of his office that day and feeling like I had at a weight lifted off my shoulders.
In his next game, a more relaxed and focussed Mense had four hits, and turned his season around. And through his exposure to McGuire, a post playing career had been laid out in front of him. When Mense was released in his fourth season by the Marlins, he eventually returned to Missouri, and began to study for his Masters in Sports Psychology. If there was a benefit, when all was said and done, to his draft stock dropping, it was that in his first year in the Marlins organization in the New York-Penn League in 2006, one of his teammates was a utility infielder by the name of Guillermo Martinez, who became a life-long friend.
After his release from the Marlins, Mense went home and played Indy ball in Kansas City for a couple of seasons, but he could see the writing on the wall, and began to prepare himself for his next career. He decided he wanted to return to Missouri to finish his undergraduate degree, and he reached out to baseball coach Tim Jamieson, who took Mense on as an undergrad assistant coach, working with the team’s hitters. Over the course of four years, as he moved into post-grad work, Mense served a variety of roles for the team: undergrad and graduate volunteer assistant coach, and colour commentator on the team’s radio broadcasts. When an opening on Jamieson’s staff became available following the 2015 season, Mense was a natural fit, and was offered the job. Unfortunately, Jamieson had not taken the Tigers to an NCAA regional since 2012, and after he failed to do so again in 2016, he tendered his resignation. A new head coach came in, and Mense was encouraged to explore coaching opportunities elsewhere, and after a summer off, he connected with the Padres, and was named the hitting coach at Tri-City, their Northwest League affiliate. When the Blue Jays came calling following his first summer with the Padres last year, the organization was understandably unwilling to let him go at first. The connection with his former teammate Martinez was integral in Mense’s getting the opportunity with Toronto:
… any time you play with somebody, or you know somebody that continues to stay in baseball like he has, you just automatically stay in touch with those people and you know you always have something to talk about – especially when it’s a hitting guy. So we always stayed in contact throughout the years.
With top prospects Guerrero and Bichette supported by the likes of Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, New Hampshire Manager John Schneider jokingly referred to travelling with the Fisher Cats to being with a boy band. Everywhere the team went, they were the centre of a great deal of media attention. Underneath it all, however, everyone involved was pretty much having a blast, including newcomer Mense.
It was so much fun being around that group as a whole and then being around that group as an offence. It was it was so much fun just because I was a new one to the group. They were all a bunch of guys that had known each other, and had played with each other and that had played with Schneids last year. So I was the one that had the privilege of getting to know all of them especially through the first half. So they welcomed me with open arms and listened, and tried new things, and tried new drills, and tried new ideas and listened to new ideas from somebody that hadn’t been in the organization. So I felt really good about that just in a sense that they took me in and treated me like one of their own. I think it was like that with everybody that came up – if there was a guy that came up for a day a week a month two months whatever it was or came down it was the same sort of deal so I think when you have that and you put all those pieces together and you have some veteran pieces and better parts that are consistent, and know what they want out of a unit, then I think you’re going to have a lot of success.
With a stellar offence to work with – the Fisher Cats led all of minor league baseball in OPS by 15 points – Mense was careful not to come in and make wholesale changes right away. Players like Bichette and Guerrero know their swings so well that there’s little a hitting coach can do in terms of their mechanics.
If you’re a professional baseball and especially at the AA level you’ve got a bunch of guys who – one, they’re older, and they’re more established – they’ve had success. They wouldn’t be at that level if they didn’t have success, too…… They’re going to be their best teacher, and at that point you think about all the hitting coaches and all the hitting people they’ve had around them up to that point in their lives. And if you’re a hitting guy and you come in and you start trying to tell them they need to do this you need to do this and this isn’t going to work….. You’re going to lose them really fast.
For the first half of the season, Mense was careful to respect those boundaries with his hitters. He focussed on being available as a resource if he was needed, and spent time with his players in the batting cage and in the dugout, where the conversations were often more about life itself than about hitting. The rapport that he built with them helped to lend his ideas and presence added credibility as the season progressed:
You start to build up this massive amount of trust, and through that then they start asking questions, and they start wondering different things that they have never thought about. As long as you come with an open and creative mind as a hitting coach, I think you’re going to get a lot more buy-in than a guy who’s just going to come in and just try and tell these guys what they should and shouldn’t be doing because these guys have all got to this point because they’ve had success.
With this approach, Mense feels the best job he did as a coach all year was his work with Guerrero:
(I just took) a step back and just let him do his thing,because I think I truly believe that there are a lot of a lot of coaches…… they just want to get in there and just don’t feel like they’re coaching unless they’re actually doing something mechanical with the player and to me by far the biggest wrong that you can make as a coach is doing that, because if something’s working and it’s really working for them, and you try changing it, you’re not going to get any buy-in from anything that you’re going to do with them.
When asked to summarize his philosophy of hitting, Mense puts it down to a basic tenet: “get a pitch early in the count that you can hit over an outfielder’s head.” While that seems like a simple statement, it incorporates a number of elements, including being aggressive early in the count, before a pitcher with effective secondary pitches can gain an advantage. But if you want to hit a ball over an outfielder’s head, Mense feels hitters need to be selective in their aggressiveness:
You’ve got to get the right pitch to do it with. So it’s zoning in on an area that you want to hit in and being steadfast on just dominating that area.
And when a hitter gets his pitch, he needs to get his best swing off:
You can’t hold anything back and you have to really get your A swing off, and then the last part of that is getting it over somebody’s head is not just getting your best swing off and your best swing is a line drive up the middle. Your best swing should be able to get some air underneath the ball that’s going to make an outfielder turn and run and run back……
In today’s rapidly changing game, hitters need to put loft on the ball, because:
…..if you aren’t hitting balls out of the yard or you aren’t driving balls in gaps and you’re just a singles guy, you’re going to get left behind.
New Hampshire had a board in their locker room that listed all hitters who had hit balls over 100 mph, which really helped them buy into the best-swing/in-the-air mentality. Perhaps the hitter who bought in the most and benefitted from it significantly as a result was Harold Ramirez. Back in AA for a third season, Ramirez hit the ball as hard as any Fisher Cat, but in 2017 the result was primarily into the ground, leading to a disappointing season for Ramirez. Some adjustments to his swing this year led to a batting title:
….we worked the whole year on putting his body into a different position to where he’s still hitting balls hard, but they’re just coming off the bat at an angle where it’s going up instead of going down, and then instead of hitting .267, he’s hitting .320 and leading the league in hitting, and he’s got 40+ doubles.
When he does get to Toronto, likely by mid-April, Vladdy Jr will be subjected to a Mount Logan-sized amount of pressure, carrying the expectations of a country – most of which has only heard or read about him, or maybe has seen him on grainy internet video. Mense thinks he’ll be more than up to the challenge:
The really cool thing about Vladdy is whenever the situation is challenging , whenever the situation is hard, whenever we’re facing a guy that was really good, he would always like just rise up to a different level….I’ve never been around a guy who has wanted to be challenged and steps up and rises to a challenge more than him.
Mense tells a story that demonstrates Guerrero’s ability to tackle challenges. The Fisher Cats took a pitching machine on the road with them, which Mense operated. During Guerrero’s last series with New Hampshire before his planned promotion, Mense set the machine to throw fastballs. A few hitters took him up on it, but Vlad was content to watch curiously from the sidelines. The hitters would take turns moving closer to the machine, trying to square up balls, until they were about 15 feet away, at which point they could no longer get around on the pitches:
… there isn’t any one of the three guys who could really do it – they’re struggling, anything they hit was going straight into the ground and they were late on it. And I catch Vladdy out of the corner of my eye – he’s over in the other cage. He’s watching what’s going on and he’s seeing that this is really challenging. I can see the wheels spinning in his head and saying to himself, “OK, this is challenging.”
At that point, Guerrero decided to take a turn:
He goes up there – boom! – Takes a step up -boom! – Takes a step up -boom! – Takes a step up barreling up things and gets to about 15 feet where (the other hitters) were. Takes a couple swings doesn’t barrel it up, kind of goes straight to the ground, and he takes a step out. Two more to the back of the net. Take a step out leaves the cage. Kinda like this look on his face like yeah OK what’s next. That was it. It was like he was so intrigued and so interested in what these guys were doing because it was a challenge. He saw that it was hard for what they were doing. And that’s and that’s how he is he will take on challenges that nobody else will take on.
Like all great players, Mense says Vladdy Jr makes everyone else around him a better player:
He’s one of those kids he makes everybody around him better when he comes in these are all such clichés that you hear about all the time, but it’s so true with him. When he comes into the clubhouse, he brings an energy to him, and when he comes in the dugout he’s got an energy to him. He’s got this aura around him, and he just makes everybody else better.
Of all the players he worked with in New Hampshire, Mense is the proudest of what he and Bichette accomplished. But it wasn’t easy. After leading all of MiLB with a .384 average in his first year of full season ball in 2017, Bichette had his struggles against the advanced competition in AA. Bichette’s troubles stemmed largely from being over-aggressive and expanding his strike zone, and word quickly got around the Eastern League, with Bichette seeing fewer and fewer pitches in the strike zone, and his average bottoming out at .237 in late May. For some hitters, that might necessitate major tinkering with their swing mechanics, but Mense was prepared to stay the course with Bichette, and pointed out to him at mid-season the source of his troubles:
We were in Portland – this was right before he went to the Futures Game, and we sat down and I showed him some numbers and it was all just numbers based on his chase percentage and the percentage of pitches he was swinging that were outside of Zone, and how compared to guys in the big leagues when they were at the AA level. It was really good for him to see that, because he saw even guys chasing a lot in the big leagues when they were in AA, they weren’t chasing that much.
To reinforce this mindset, Manager Schneider would deliberately throw pitches out of the strike zone to Bichette during batting practice, forcing him to corral his aggressiveness and improve his selectivity skills. Once Bichette decided to focus on pitches he could barrel, his average climbed:
And that was the thing – he kind of came to the conclusion of instead of trying to cover the entire strike zone, he just had to shrink what he was trying to swing at, and get it earlier in the count. He just had to shrink that down a little bit and once he did it – once he realized that’s what he needed to do, man it was……… I mean he took off, because the path that he has as a hitter that he takes to the baseball is an elite path.
Bichette takes great pride in his hitting, and when he wasn’t putting the barrel on the pitches he was chasing, he knew he had to make a change in his approach:
His (struggles) had nothing to do with (lack of pitch recognition). He has bat speed, and an ability to not have to guess, and not have to start his swing early, which gives him an opportunity to be better and cover more pitches in the zone if he wants. It was just a change in mindset and in the end, he takes such pride in being aggressive….. But he also takes pride in getting a lot of hits too. And I think he realized that he had to adjust. Once he started to get exposed a little bit by pitchers – they felt like they didn’t even have to throw strikes to get him out. Once he realized that he wasn’t getting the hits, he was like, “Okay I gotta make a change because I like getting hits”
In the end, the struggles Bichette faced for the first time in his pro career will likely serve him very well in the future. Mense thinks in many ways his 2018 season was better than 2017, because of the lessons he learned:
… in 2018 I can tell you and I can assure you was a way better year for him because he had to work through some things that are going to be going to be more sustainable for him for the rest of his career.
Cavan Biggio’s 2017 numbers didn’t stand out, but there were some inklings that big things were likely to come as a result of changes he had made in his mechanics following his rookie 2016 campaign. In an attempt to swing harder and put more loft on the ball, Biggio’s flyball percentage jumped in 2017, as did his K% rate. In the large Florida State League ballparks in the humid southern summer air, however, only 11 of those flyballs left the park. This season, Biggio continued that approach, and made another mechanical adjustment. Mense says Biggio’s experience coupled with that change allowed him to become one of the most dangerous hitters in the Eastern League, leading the loop in Home Runs, Walks, Slugging, and OPS:
(He’s a) guy that’s a year or more advanced in his career, and advanced with what it is that he knows he can do damage with. And you couple that with he lowered his hands in the offseason, and felt like he was getting into a better spot where he could consistently get balls in the air. You put all those things together, I think it is a recipe for doing that and hitting a bunch of home runs. I mean you look at his average exit velo from this year to last year and it went up a couple of miles per hour. So he was consistently hitting balls harder in the air. And I do think that probably has a little bit to do with him lowering his hands, and more so than anything I think it was it was just a conscious effort from him to try to do more damage and not just be a Singles hitter.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr was not with the Fisher Cats for long before his promotion to Buffalo, but he left a lasting impact on his teammates, and was a completely different player from 2017, which could be attributed to injuries, and as Mense points out, some rust:
I think in talking to everybody and hearing him talk about it, it was just swinging at better pitches. And I think that probably had a little bit to do with the lay off that he had and not playing really competitively (for almost two years)……… So he was very meticulous with how he worked, and he was probably the best worker in the cage with what he wanted to do, and how he went about doing it, and how dead set he was on getting these things in. And that was really cool to see. I mean it was really cool for our guys to see, especially a guy like Vladdy watching him do these things every day, and then seeing the success he was having, then going up to the big leagues. He was putting in the work, and he was working his rear end off every single day that he came into the game, and he had an idea and a plan as to what he wanted to do.
Not every hitter Mense worked with was a success story from start to finish. Max Pentecost caught a career-high 77 games, but the 2014 1st rounder struggled at the plate for the first four months of the season before making some changes and catching fire in August:
So he made a change, and I think there are a couple of parts to it. He got to a point when we were entering August, he was hitting about .195, and it got to a point where it was like, hey dude, we have to change something, because we can continue on this path, or we can change and hopefully something goes better. But if at the very worst you continue do what you’re doing. I mean what are going we to lose? So he was at a point where he was ready to make some changes, so we kind of let him mess around with it and kind of come up with his own ideas to what he wanted to do slowly, starting start having started incorporating like a little gather a little toe tap gather.
The difference in Pentecost’s hitting as a result of making those adjustments were swift and dramatic. He started driving balls with regularity, and hit .375 for the month of August, leading the Eastern League in Slugging and OPS, garnering Player of the Month honours. A small warning light that was flashing on Pentecost’s dashboard, however, was his .381 OBP. As a result of being aggressive and attacking early in counts, he wasn’t drawing walks (all of 1 for the month). In the playoffs, when he was probably feeling a bit tired at the end of a long season, Pentecost appeared to be just going up to the plate and hacking at the first pitch near the strike zone that he saw:
Towards the end of the year he kind of started getting worn down a little bit. I think that gather that he started having was a little bit quicker and so he wasn’t seeing pictures out of the guy’s hand as well as he was in that month of August. And so then he’s trying to make up for it by swinging and trying to get his best swing off and he was just trying to swing at everything and trying to do his damage with everything instead of just going back to slowing it down and just getting something in the zone.
Mense thinks that it’s still reasonable to be optimistic about Pentecost’s future due to his makeup and athleticism:
I like when he started doing that little gather – the old toe tap – it literally took him one day and then the next day he implemented it and it was like Home Run here, and Double here, and it was like it changed that fast. So he has the ability to make adjustments and change really fast. He did it from the Catching side of it too……. He’s he’s such a good athlete and has such good feel that he was able to make those changes.
Mense’s season started in Florida in Spring Training. After five-plus months with New Hampshire, it was back to Florida for Instructs, and then off to the Dominican to work with hitters at the team’s complex there. Among the hitters at this last two stops who impressed him were:
-2018 1st round pick Jordan Groshans:
I watched a couple of inter squad games, watched him hit a double off the wall in right field, it’s just like he’s got some Bo-ish type of athleticism to him in the box. He’s a free and easy mover in the box and he’s always had success. And so it’s one of those things to work just let the guy go, and let him have that big leg kick, let him have this big hand pump. And if it continues to work don’t change it and just keep letting him do his thing and refine some things.
-2018 10th rounder Cal Stevenson, who led the Appalachian League in Runs, Walks, and OBP, and always seem to make things happen on the basepaths for Bluefield:
I really liked watching him here. I really liked being around Cal Stevenson. The kid that was in Bluefield, just talking to him and his approach to his ABs. I mean they were so advanced with what he was trying to do. I mean gosh you look at his numbers with the amount of walks compared to strikeouts, and just the year that he had was unbelievable.
OF Steward Berroa’s name may only be known to the most hardcore of Blue Jays prospect watchers, but he had a decent year in his first stateside season with the GCL Jas in 2018.
He’s the kind of kid that just epitomizes everything that the organization wants that a player just plays really hard, does everything that you ask, and he’s going to do it 110 percent and run. And he’s starting to learn how to hit a little bit. He’s got a little bit of juice, and he’s a plus Centrefielder, and when you throw all those things together and I think he’s a kid that. I think he’s going to win. I thought this when I first saw him when I was down here last year, but he’s just like an explosive kid. When you have that quick twitch if you can figure out how to use that quick twitch in the right way you have a chance to be pretty good.
Mense’s profile was raised this summer along that of his hitters, and it’s understandable that people ask him what his future goals are. Although having listened to him for almost an hour, it’s obvious that he’s a player development guy through and through. He enjoys the process, and doesn’t necessarily have a burning ambition to be an MLB hitting coach as soon as possible:
I just know that what I see myself doing in five years or whatever it may be,I just know that I really enjoy helping. I really enjoy working with players, and I really enjoy being with players and around players and watching them develop and watching them grow. I just know that I’ll be doing that in some sort of capacity or if I feel like I can do it at a big league level great, if I do like I’m doing at AAA or AA or whatever. If they create a role for me that’s different….. I get the most satisfaction out of that and I feel like watching guys develop and helping guys make it accomplish and their life long goal.
After his time in the Dominican, Mense was off to Madison, NJ. His fiance is a dietitian with the NFL’s New York Jets, and a guy used to the cold (but not the snow) of a Missouri off-season is now in search of a winter sport to keep him occupied until spring training. Wherever he lands in the Blue Jays organization next year, their minor league prospects will have a patient and insightful mentor to guide them.
You’ll have to go behind their pay wall to read all the details, but a combined four Blue Jays prospects have made it to Baseball America‘s Top 20 International and Eastern League Prospects lists.
To the surprise of no one, Vladimir Guerrero Jr was named the EL’s top prospect. As BA pointed out, having top prospects on your roster doesn’t always translate to minor league success, but in the case of Guerrero’s New Hampshire Fisher Cats, it certainly did. The bulk of the group that won a co-championship in the Florida State League swept both rounds of the playoffs to capture the Eastern League crown. BA’s final paragraph on Vlad sums up what many evaluators have been thinking for several years:
Staying at the hot corner is not out of the question, but Guerrero will have to work hard to maintain his large frame if he wants to avoid a move to first base. No matter where he plays, there are multiple all-star games in his future.
It was a bit of a surprise in the prospect-laden EL that Bo Bichette came in at #2 on the list. Bichette was taken to task for his over aggressiveness at the plate by Eastern League pitchers, but he worked on his pitch recognition skills to battle his way from a batting average that dipped into the .240s in June. BA had praise for his approach:
Bichette finished as one of only 13 minor leaguers with more than 30 stolen bases and double-digit homers. Rival evaluators praised Bichette’s advanced approach and elite bat-to-ball skills, which allowed him to raise his walk rate from last season even as the second-youngest player in the league.
Cavan Biggio jumped onto the prospect radar with 26 Home Runs, checking in at #14 on BA’s list. BA noted how he had made an adjustment with the position of his hands this season, lowering them to create more loft, something he had been working on last year, but fully committed to this season.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr started the year at New Hampshire, and finished it in Toronto with a number of trips to Buffalo in between, and wound up as the 12th ranked International League prospect:
Gurriel showed the skills that earned him a seven-year, $22 million contract in his time at Buffalo, hitting for average and power while effectively playing both spots in the middle infield. He moved to a different level eight times during the season, but impressively never seemed to lose his rhythm despite constantly moving around.
Gurriel was a different player from Opening Day on this year than he was last year. His bat was one of the most impressive ones in the Fisher Cats lineup before he moved up.
Florida State League and Midwest League rankings are due out shortly. Dunedin’s Kevin Smith would be a lock for the former, as well as FSL PioY Patrick Murphy, and while Lansing was one of the most successful teams in the system, they did not have a stockpile of top prospects by season’s end, so it will be interesting to see who from their roster might crack BA’s MWL list.
Catcher – Danny Jansen .275/.390/.473 (MiLB numbers)
Jansen solidified his label as the Blue Jays Catcher of the Future with a good season on both sides of the plate, and earned a late season call up as a result.
Jansen has long been lauded for his leadership skills, and his ability to handle a Pitching staff. Over the last two years, he’s added a potent bat, and vastly improved blocking skills to go along with the tools he already has behind the plate, which include being able to set a good low target, and excellent framing skills.
With Reese McGuire joining him in more than a day game after a night game role, the Blue Jays will be able to keep Jansen’s bat in the lineup on occasion while giving him a day off from Catching duties in 2019. Barring injury, the team appears set at this position well into the next decade.
1B Ryan Noda .256/.421/.484
After a disappointing draft year showing, Noda slipped to the Jays in the 15th round last June. He led the Appalachian League in OPS, and continued his on-base ways in Lansing this year.
Noda led the minors in walks with 109, and his ABs continued to be a sight to see. Eschewing batting gloves, Noda grinds out plate appearances, plain and simple. His 20 HRs were 2nd best in the Midwest League, as were his 80 RBI.
With Kacy Clemens in the lineup for the first six weeks of the season, Noda had to split time with him at 1B, heading to LF when Clemens had a turn at First. His defensive skills in the Outfield were a work in progress – his numbers improved once Clemens was promoted to Dunedin, and Noda became a fulltime First Baseman. He finished the season in a flurry, posting a 1.130 OPS in August.
Noda will no doubt continue to work the count at High A next year, but he may have to become more aggressive. When he works the counts, he sometimes becomes vulnerable to off speed pitches on the outside edge of the plate. Pitchers with better command at higher levels may be able to exploit that.
2B Cavan Biggio .252/.388/.499
Biggio increased his SwStr% and Flyball rate last year in an obvious attempt to add some loft to the ball, but the humidity and Pitcher-friendly Florida State League ballparks conspired to keep many of his long balls short of the fences.
This year, he’s broken out in a big way. Biggio led the Eastern League in Homers, Slugging OPS. He also led the league in walks, and just missed leading in strikeouts, almost winning the three true outcome title.
Biggio played three infield positions, finding himself most often at 2nd this year (68 games). The Blue Jays also experimented with him in the Outfield late in the season, and will continue his trial there in the Arizona Fall League.
SS Kevin Smith .302/.358/.528
Smith was regarded as a glove-first SS when the Blue Jays took him in the 4th round last year, and that label seemed apt after a .271/.312/.466 season with Bluefield.
Except that if there’s one thing that drives Smith, it’s proving the doubters wrong.
An ardent student of the game and diligent worker, Smith set about last off-season to eliminate a loop in his swing in an attempt to catch up to high fastballs, and to improve his two strike approach. The changes paid off, as Smith dominated at Lansing, and earned a late May promotion to Dunedin.
Smith is probably the best defensive SS in the Blue Jays system – a clear evaluation on that is admittedly difficult. He split time at 3B and SS at Lansing, then played in the online streaming black hole that is the FSL for the rest of the year.
One thing is certain – Smith has worked his way onto the Blue Jays top prospect list. He is very likely to stick at SS,
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr .381/.437/.636
The easiest choice by far. Not only did Guerrero have an offensive minor league season for the ages (possibly the best in Blue Jays prospect history), he made tremendous strides with his defence. While he may not supplant Brooks Robinson one day in terms of reputation, he has built on the skills he already displayed in abundance at the hot corner: footwork, sure hands, and a strong accurate arm. Guerrero has been working on his first step reactions, and this play demonstrates the progress he’s made:
OF – Harold Ramirez .320/.365/.471
Ramirez may have been in the shadow of more illustrious teammates this year like Gurriel, Guerrero, Bichette, and Biggio, but he was one of the most consistent hitters in New Hampshire’s lineup, winning an Eastern League batting title. In his third go round at AA after injuries interrupted his 2017 season, Ramirez was among the league leaders in Total Bases and Slugging.
Where does Ramirez fit in a now crowded Blue Jays Outfield situation? That’s hard to say, but his versatility and bat could help him force his way into the picture sometime next year.
OF Chavez Young .285/.363/.445
From 39th round pick to near Top 10 prospect in three seasons is a remarkable journey. Young was the only player in the minors this year with 50+ extra base hits and 40+ steals, demonstrating his power-speed potential.
At the plate, Young has a solid approach, and demonstrated that this year with a career-high walk rate. A plus defender who can play all three OF positions, Young was a solid presence at the plate and in the field for Lansing this summer. There are still some aspects of rawness to his game, but he smoothed off a lot of the rough edges in his first year of full season ball.
OF Cal Stevenson
Firmly entrenched at the top of Bluefield’s lineup, the 10th round pick led the Appy League in runs, walks, and OBP, and was second in Average and Stolen Bases. He was the catalyst in a lineup that nearly reached the Appy finals.
Ut – Otto Lopez .308/.399/.406
Easily Vancouver’s most valuable player, Lopez can play the OF, as well as 2B/SS/3B. He runs the bases well, and is a smart, high baseball-IQ player.
RH Starter – Patrick Murphy
Finally healthy for a full season for the first time in several years, Murphy was dominant in the Florida State League, leading the loop in Ks, and a nearly 60% GB rate indicates that when FSL hitters weren’t swinging and missing at this pitches, they had trouble squaring him up.
LH Starter – Zach Logue 12-4 3.15 ERA .259 OBA
Logue started the year at Lansing, and was promoted in May to Dunedin. Not an overpowering Pitcher, he relies on command and a four-pitch mix to keep hitters off-balance, which he did for much of the year. He uses his fastball to get ahead, and then relies on his improving secondaries to finish batters off.
RP – Travis Bergen 4-2 0.95 ERA .200 OBA
Another Pitcher who was finally healthy for a full season, Bergen was lights out at two levels in relief. Moved up to New Hampshire after starting the year in Dunedin, the left-hander fanned 74 hitters in 59 innings at the two levels. Bergen does not approach triple digits, but has command of all of his pitches – he surrendered only 15 walks this season.
DH – Alejandro Kirk .354/.443/.558
Kirk came within 3 feet of tying up what proved to be the deciding game of Bluefield’s semifinal playoff matchup with the Rays Princeton affiliate, but his game travelled a long way this season.
Coming into the season, Kirk was a C/DH (with emphasis on the latter) was a fairly unknown commodity. A late September signing in 2016, the Mexican had all of 2 ABs in the GCL in 2017 before being assigned to Bluefield this season. Kirk busted out in a big way, and was named the Appy All Star DH. With starting Catcher Hagen Danner in an out of the lineup with injuries, Kirk stepped in and from all accounts handled himself well.
Kirk swings hard and seldom gets cheated at the plate. He put up gaudy numbers at a Low Level, so he comes with the usually cautions as he moves up. That bat holds considerable promise, however.
As the minor league season approaches its conclusion, we turn our thoughts to the Arizona Fall League, a finishing school of sorts for an organization’s top prospects.
In the past, the Blue Jays have used the AFL experience to give their top prospects a taste of competition against elite talent, or to give them added reps missed due to injury.
Toronto will send six prospects to play for the Surprise Saguaros, who will be managed by former Blue Jays minor league Manager Stubby Clapp, who’s now in the Cardinals organization. New Hampshire Position Coach Andy Fermin will join Clapp’s staff.
The Blue Jays will be sending six players – they’re allowed to send any AAA or AA player, as well as one from High A. Projecting the first three players is fairly easy:
1. Vlad Jr
While fans are clamoring for Guerrero’s promotion to the big club when MLB rosters expand on September 1st, the Blue Jays are still building him up to play a full season (and holding off on his service time), so a shutdown for September followed by a trip to the desert is the most likely scenario.
2. Bo Bichette
Bichette has had his ups and downs this year as his pitch recognition skills have been put to the test, but his .839 post All Star OPS suggests he’s come through his first taste of adversity as a pro. Word travelled quickly around the Eastern League that he’d chase, and he struggled until he stopped expanding his strike zone.
Bichette would likely get an opportunity to split time between SS and 2B, adding to his versatility.
3. Cavan Biggio
Biggio’s prodigious power (26 HRs, .532 SLG) has been one of the bigger surprises in the organization. Toss in 90 BBs and 128 Ks, and you have a three true outcomes triple crown threat.
Some Toronto media members have been suggesting Biggio could be in the Blue Jays lineup as early as next year, but the team still likely would to see if that power surge is for real, and what his ultimate position might be. Biggio has played mostly 2B, but has also seen time at 1B and 3B, and the club experimented with him in RF this week.
Facing tough competition in the AFL will give us a good barometer of the legitimacy of his power.
It starts to get a bit unpredictable at this point. Some possible candidates for the other three spots include:
After spending April in shut down mode with an oblique issue, Pearson’s 2018 came to a screeching halt when he took a line drive off of his pitching arm in his first start of the season. Reports suggested an August return, but he’s yet to pitch in a game since the injury.
It’s possible we see him in short stints in the AFL, but the likelihood of that depends on how his arm has healed. And getting that kind of information out of the Blue Jays is a herculean task.
Injuries limited the 2015 7th rounder to 28 innings over his first three pro seasons. He was a mainstay in Vancouver’s bullpen last year, helping to lead the C’s to a league title, and has taken over the Closer’s role in New Hampshire. With Bergen eligible for the Rule 5 draft if he’s not placed on the 40-man roster by November, the team likely would like to see how he fares against top prospects.
The righty reliever with the funky delivery has fanned 66 in 56 innings for New Hampshire, but has walked 43. Some added reps might be in order.
Like Bergen, Murphy has a lengthy injury history, but he’s bumped up his velo, hitting 100 this year, and sitting 96-98 deep into games. Murphy has also blown past his previous high in Innings Pitched, so there’s every chance he’s shut down come September, given the Blue Jays usual caution with their young arms. With the Rule 5 a possibility for Murphy, there’s a good chance he’s added to the 40 this fall.
The 2015 1st rounder had a disappointing season in his first AA campaign last year, but has added velo and some deception to his delivery in his second crack at the level in 2018. With the Rule 5 looming for Harris, the Blue Jays might give him time in Arizona after a decent second half with New Hampshire.
Romano came out like a house on fire at AA, winning his first 8 decisions and getting the starting nod at the Eastern League All Star game. He hasn’t missed as many bats in the second half as he did in the first, and with scouts wondering if he wasn’t better suited to a bullpen role, the Blue Jays might want to begin that transition this fall if that’s what they have in mind.
The tall lefty with the electric fastball has been a starter since joining the organization in 2012, but the team moved him into the bullpen this year in Dunedin.
Rosters are usually released in late August. Play in the AFL begins in early October, and wraps up in late November.
After hitting his 6th Homer of the year (good for 2nd in the Eastern League) this afternoon, it’s high time we had a closer look at New Hampshire UT Cavan Biggio.
The Blue Jays selected Biggio in the 5th round in 2016. Clearly, they were higher on him than Baseball America was:
As you would expect for the son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, Cavan Biggio has a very intelligent approach to the game. His understanding of the game is arguably his best attribute, as his tools are modest. Biggio is an average runner and stole 14 bases in 14 tries during the regular season. Biggio, who has a plenty of pre-swing movement that he may need to tone down as a pro, has below-average power with an all-field approach that gives him a fringe-average hit tool. His advanced batting eye helped him walk in 21 percent of his plate appearances this season, helping him to post a .473 on-base percentage. Defensively, he’s struggled with his reliability as a junior. His range is limited but he turns a good double play.
Biggio had a decent (.282/.382/.366) pro debut season with Vancouver in his draft year, but a cursory glance at his line last year with Dunedin (.233/.342/.363) suggested that he had taken a step back at the higher level. A closer look reveals an improved rate of line drive contact, as the natural loft in his swing produced some decent contact, which may have been concealed by the Pitcher’s paradise that is the Florida State League:
Cavan Biggio has a lot of natural loft in his swing. Has been consistently 40+% FB rate with an uptick to 60% in 18. FSL flyballs die in the humidity leading to his poor .233 average in 2017. Not surprised that AA has seen better results stat wise.#BlueJays
The left-handed hitting Biggio has an upright, closed stance. There still is some pronounced bat waggle, but it’s obviously used as a timing mechanism. He uses a slight leg lift, and gets that front leg down straight and quickly, producing leverage in his swing. New Hampshire Manager John Schneider lauds Biggio’s mechanics, and has suggested that his swing is one of the most efficient ones in the league. That’s high praise, considering the two bats ahead of him in the order.
A 2-3, BB performance today lifted his season’s line to .319/.427/.708. You will find Biggio among the leaders in several Eastern League offensive stats, including Slugging and OPS. The Blue Jays have added to Biggio’s versatility, giving him time at 3rd (when Vlad Jr needs a day off), 2B and 1B. Not a fleet runner, Biggio uses his base running smarts to take an extra base when needed. As BA suggests, Biggio’s high baseball IQ is one of his biggest assets.
There are some that would argue that Biggio’s stats so far are inflated by the short right field porch at New Hampshire. That certainly was the case for Tellez in 2016, as his home numbers (1.001 OPS vs .835 on the road) would indicate. But such has not been the case so far for Biggio, based on this set of splits:
What does the future hold for Biggio? Can he continue to produce at this level and beyond, or will he fall victim to what someone on Twitter labelled the “Tellez Effect”? That is truly hard to say, because he has not had production at this level for a sustained period so far in his relatively brief pro career. If he does advance, it will be that pop in his bat, along with his ability to play several positions that will help him to succeed at AAA.
Jordan Romano has come a long way for a guy who started out as a reliever, and whom some feel would be best suited to that role.
The Markham, ON native was drafted in the 10th round of the 2014 draft after serving as Oral Roberts’ closer. He began his career in the Blue Jays system in the bullpen, but after missing 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, he came back to the organization in a starting role.
The Blue Jays have long coveted Romano’s size, downward plane on his pitches, and his fastball-slider combo that just needed another pitch to complement it. After striking out exactly a batter per inning over the last two seasons, the Blue Jays are content to let him continue to refine that third pitch at AA.
Last year with Dunedin, Romano was second in the Florida State League in Ks, as well as FIP. In addition to working on his change-up, Romano has had to learn to pace himself. Manager John Schneider, who had moved up the ladder with him the last two years, told Sportsnet:
“There’s no question he’s got a great arm,” Schneider says. “But I think he’s learning he can back off a little bit, not try to overthrow everything, and really hit his spots and have success. I think he’s learning he can pitch a little bit and not have to be as max effort as he has been in the past.”
But it’s been the need for a pitch to get left-handed hitters out that has been the biggest need for Romano. Lefties have always hit him well, and last year was no exception, as FSL batters hit him at a .351 clip.
Last night in Trenton against he Yankees Eastern League affiliate, Romano had the change-up working for him (“I’ve been working really hard on it,” he said after the game), as he tossed 7 innings of shutout ball. On the evening, he allowed only 3 hits, fanned 7, and didn’t walk a batter. The Blue Jays usually don’t allow their minor league starters to work this deep into a game so early in the season, but Romano was so efficient (only 64 pitches through 6 innings), that he was allowed to continue into the 7th.
One interesting note – Romano allowed only two Homers last year in Florida. He gave up that many in his first start this year. Last night, he did not allow a runner past 2nd. Given his flyball rate in the past, he may give up more longballs this year. If he can continue to keep the walks down, that might not be a big issue.
It’s easy to see Romano as a dominant back-of-the-bullpen guy if he was limited to that fastball/slider mix. Against right-handed hitters, his fastball has some arm side run when he gets the right arm angle, and his slider is a definite swing-and-miss pitch. But as President/CEO Mark Shapiro said in an interview last fall, developing starting pitching is probably a GM’s hardest job. And the change is a feel pitch, one that can take time – several seasons, even – to develop. Besides, when a guy has missed as many bats as Romano has in his minor league career, it’s worth seeing if he can keep getting hitters out at AA.
Romano was exposed to the Rule 5 draft last fall, and went unclaimed. That likely won’t be the case this fall, meaning the team will have to make a decision on his future this year.
I know I tend to go on about how much I’m enjoying the Fisher Cats play this year, but they have a chance to truly be special. Romano said this is the best team he’s ever played for.
And I’m talking about this team beyond Bo and Vlad. Jonathan Davis, for example, is a fantastic prototypical lead off hitter. With Bichette sitting in the on deck circle and Guerrero grabbing a bat in the dugout, opposition pitchers would rather keep Davis off base. But he works the count, fouling off borderline pitches, and giving his teammates a chance to see what the Pitcher has on that night. On base, his speed is a distraction for Pitchers already trying to pitch the bash twins carefully. He’s a perfect table setter for this lineup.
The baseball IQ this team displays is also a joy to watch. In last night’s game, they took advantage of Trenton starter Domingo Acevedo’s slow delivery to home. They take the extra base when an outfielder misses the cutoff man, they see a lot of pitches, and generally just play an unselfish game. In only their second game of the season, with Davis placed on 2nd to start the 11th inning under MiLB’s new extra inning rule, Guerrero laid down a perfect bunt (on his own, apparently), advancing Davis to 3rd. Guerrero knew that because Gurriel had been hitting the ball hard, and could probably score Davis with a sac fly.
Despite a high-powered offence, the Fisher Cats lineup is not full of swing-from-the-heels, ond-dimensional players. Guerrero’s AB in the 4th was perfectly representative of their collective approach. Up 2-0, Guerrero was rightly expecting a fastball. But it was a pitch on the outer half. Rather than try to pull the pitch, Vladdy went with what the Pitcher gave him, and slapped a Double to Right Centre. Trying to pull the ball may have resulted in a ground ball, so Guerrero shortened his swing and made contact.
There are a lot of baseball bloodlines on this team with Bichette, Guerrero, Cavan Biggio (who has been off to a strong start, and could be a valuable multi-positon player one day), as well as Gurriel, whose father likely would have been an MLBer. They have a solid lineup (one of the most dangerous hitters over the second half of the season in the FSL last year, Conor Panas, hits 7th), and a shutdown bullpen.
One last thought: it will take a much larger sample size to determine Guerrero’s ultimate position, but after a week of watching him, it’s obvious that balls that he gets to are usually going to be outs. He displays good hands, and a strong, accurate arm. The question will be how many he’ll get to. That’s still to be determined.