Look, you both know it, I know it, and even the bandwagon fans on Facebook know it. This season had considerable promise and started well, but with the starting rotation in shambles and the bullpen already showing the signs of overuse and this season about to become as disappointing as grocery store sushi, it’s time.
Time to make plans to break up the American League’s oldest roster, a group you knew last year was getting past the point of being able to realistically compete for a post-season berth. But the higher-ups at Rogers wouldn’t let you take a wrecking ball to it, because they liked the sounds of the cash register ringing.
Even though you both have been on the job for only a couple of years, you’ve built an organization that is poised to become a leader in analytics, scouting, sport science, and minor league instruction. You quickly understood that the key to long-term competitiveness for this franchise lay in its ability to unearth diamonds in the rough in the form of amateur players both through the draft and IFA markets, and use your system to give them the polish they need.
Mark, you spoke in the off-season about developing waves of prospects to come in an compete for MLB jobs. The first of them is almost ready. The best prospect in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, is part of that group, which includes Danny Jansen, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Alford. You certainly could make the argument that more development time is warranted for all four, but you could counter that by suggesting that if the roster is torn down to make room for them, that development could continue at the MLB level. We know all about the risk of failure that can come with accelerating players too quickly, but the Nationals decided to move top prospect Juan Soto (who is all of six months older than Vladdy) to AAA after (check that – he’s been promoted to the bigs) only 32 AA At Bats. Granted, Jr has some more defensive development to complete before he graduates, and top pitching prospects still give him a bit of trouble, but move him up to Buffalo already. If he succeeds there an and opening on the big league roster becomes available by, say, July 31st, bring him on up. Who knows where any of us will be in six years – and it’s hard to see you sticking around that long if you have to keep banging heads with the suits upstairs.
After the first wave has established itself in a year or so, the next wave, with talent like Bo Bichette (who’s struggling for the first time in his pro career this year, but that’s ok – better to learn to deal with it in AA), Sean Reid-Foley, and Cavan Biggio might be ready, and you could throw in Jordan Romano, too. Behind them, you’ve got a collection that includes Nate Pearson, Logan Warmoth, Yennsy Diaz, and Kevin Smith, and farther down the road, Eric Pardinho, Miguel Hiraldo, and this year’s top draft choice -hopefully, another arm – (and a possibly even better one next year) and IFAs. Players dealt to make room on the MLB roster should be exchanged for more prospect depth.
It’s time to put a bow on this season and write it off, rather than continuing to apply duct tape to your broken roster. The execs at Rogers are no doubt worried that time in baseball’s wilderness will plunge the team back into the bottom third of AL attendance figures, and that is a concern. It’s bad enough that they seem to keep putting off badly needed renos to the Rogers Centre, but they should give you both a broad brush to undertake the makeover of the 25-man roster. Yes, attendance will dip, but if/when Vlad is added to the 40 (part of a bigger set of roster decisions) and promoted, that should help stem the slide at the gates. Yes, this team spent almost two decades wandering through the baseball wilderness before 2015, but you guys are putting together an organization that is becoming one of the top ones in baseball in terms of development. Your time in the basement shouldn’t be long.
You have some decisions to make (although some of them are pretty obvious), but space needs to be made. It won’t be easy, but it’s time. And has they proved three years ago, the fans will come back.
Thanks to the excellent resources that are available (beyond this one, of course), many Blue Jays fans are now keeping closer tabs on the team’s minor league players.
For someone who loves the minors just as much as the majors, that’s great.
There are many ways to keep track of your favourite minor league prospects. At milb.com, minor league baseball’s website, you can check out box scores as games progress (something Mark Shapiro admits he does), or listen to live play-by-play. Most of Buffalo and New Hampshire’s games are streamed live (subscription required), and word from Lansing’s GM is that select Lugnuts home games will be streamed as well. Of course, depending on where you are, you can make the drive to Lansing or Buffalo to catch games lives. I would heartily recommend a week in Vancouver to see the sights and catch a few C’s games – there’s a Sky Train station (Vancouver’s version of the TTC) a fifteen minute walk away from Nat Bailey Stadium.
There are no guarantees, but here’s where the Top 30 Blue Jays prospects (according to MLB.com) will likely begin the season:
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
2. Bo Bichette
Typically, the Blue Jays prefer to have their players spend a full season at one level. Whether that happens over one season or two halves depends on the player, but that’s the usual trend.
Having said that, the pair of sluggers, who each spent half a season at Low A Lansing, and the other half at High A Dunedin, have little left to prove in A ball. There are still wrinkles in their respective games to work out on the defensive side of the ball, but it would be highly unlikely you will see them in April anywhere other than the Eastern League.
Is it possible we see one or both in the majors by the end of the season? Shapiro himself said last fall that if Vladdy continued to hit, and if the team was in need of a bat in the midst of a pennant race this summer, we could see him in Toronto, but that seems a tall (but not necessarily impossible) order.
Both players should spend the bulk of the season in New Hampshire, with late-season promotions to Buffalo a possibility. Much will depend on playoff races – while minor league playoffs don’t mean a lot in the long run, teams do like to have their top players in that kind of environment for the experience.
3. Anthony Alford
At the moment, Alford is putting forth a serious effort to head north with the Blue Jays when training camp breaks.
Failing that, he will make the trip down the QEW to Buffalo. When an opening comes up in Toronto, Alford will be gone. He’s that close to being MLB-ready.
4. Nate Pearson
The 2nd of the Blue Jays two first round picks last June toyed with Northwest League hitters last summer. His pitches and innings were limited, but he didn’t allow a runner past 2nd until his last start of the regular season, and fanned 10 in a crucial playoff start. With a fastball that sits 95-97 and can top 100, Pearson is likely headed to Dunedin to start the season. 2016 1st rounder T.J. Zeuch followed that skip-Lansing path last year.
The Florida State League, unfortunately, is a bit of a black hole as far as streaming video is concerned. The Pirates Bradenton affiliate had their home games online last year, giving us a couple of games’ worth of Blue Jays prospects.
5. Logan Warmoth
With Kevin Smith behind him and in need of playing every day, Warmoth likely will skip Lansing in favour of Dunedin as well. And that’s a shame for those of us who caught a few of his games last year.
Warmoth does not have one overwhelming tool, but he has to be seen to be appreciated. He does a lot of things very well, and his bat looks legit. He squared up a lot of pitches in Vancouver last summer.
6. Danny Jansen
Perhaps no Blue Jays prospect improved their status in 2017 as much as the Wisconsin native. New eyewear helped Jansen pick up the spin on pitches better, and he hit his way from Dunedin to New Hampshire to Buffalo by season’s end.
Jansen has an outside shot at backing up Russ Martin, particularly if the Blue Jays plan on cutting back on Martin’s workload. Still, he probably could benefit by playing every day – injuries have limited his development somewhat. Prior to last year, Jansen’s highest total of games caught in a season was 57.
By the way, credit has to go to the Blue Jays scouting director Blake Parker and GM Alex Anthopoulos for drafting Jansen in 2013. The Blue Jays of that era made a practice of looking for players in non-traditional markets, or players whose stock had fallen due to injury or college commitments. Jansen was a potential top-three rounds pick in his senior season of high school, but a broken wrist, coupled with the short Wisconsin prep season, kept most teams from getting a good look at him. One team – Toronto – prevailed, and five years later, they have a player on the cusp of the bigs.
7. Eric Pardinho
Those hoping to see last year’s top-ranked international free agent Pitcher will have to buy a plane ticket to Florida to watch the 16-year-old Brazilian sensation in the outdoor sauna that is the Gulf Coast League (luckily, the games are free).
Pardinho faces an adjustment to the competition and culture that is stateside play, and Blue Jays Assistant GM Andrew Tinnish (who oversees international ops for the team) suggested that Pardinho will spend the summer in Dunedin.
8. Ryan Borucki
Two years ago next month, Borucki was getting hit hard and often in the Florida State League. A demotion to Lansing and some mechanical adjustments helped to turn him into a guy who should make his MLB debut sometime this year.
The owner of the best change-up this side of Marco Estrada, Borucki will start the season in Buffalo. His ascent to the bigs will be dictated by the health and consistency of the big league rotation. Borucki ranks high for his pitchability and grit; it may take some time for him to stick, but he should be a solid mid-rotation Pitcher for some time.
9. T.J. Zeuch
After a 2017 season with Dunedin that was interrupted by injury, Zeuch restored his growing reputation with a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, getting the start in the Championship game.
If there are any lingering injury concerns, Zeuch might stay in Dunedin until May, but he should be joining New Hampshire early in the season.
10. Sean Reid-Foley
The numbers don’t show it, but SRF pitched well at AA for the last half of the season. He’s been roughed up a bit by catching too much of the strike zone in a couple of spring training appearances for the Blue Jays so far.
Reid-Foley may repeat New Hampshire to start the season, depending on rotation space in Buffalo, but he should reach AAA this season.
11. Richie Urena
Urena acquitted himself well in 20 games with the big team in September. With the acquisition of Aledmys Diaz, Urena will begin the season in Buffalo.
12. Miguel Hiraldo
One of the top bats in last year’s IFA class, Tinnish indicated that Hiraldo will most likely be in the lineup of the GCL Jays when their season opens in June.
13. Samad Taylor
Taylor, along with LHP Thomas Pannone, was acquired from Cleveland in the Joe Smith deal. Taylor fit in nicely with the Northwest League champs Vancouver Canadians after 2B Cullen Large broke his hand trying to break up a double play.
With Large healthy, Taylor may bypass Lansing and head to Dunedin this year.
14. Reese McGuire
A knee injury cost McGuire much of his 2017 campaign, but he is still viewed as a skilled receiver, and his bat showed signs of promise.
With Jansen likely ahead of him on the depth charts, McGuire may return to New Hampshire. With his defensive skill set, he also could be considered to have an outside shot as Martin’s back up.
15. Rowdy Tellez
2017 was a bit of a lost year for Tellez. He entered the season as a candidate to make his MLB debut if Justin Smoak struggled.
He hit a pair of Homers for Buffalo, then hit only 4 the rest of the year. Tellez had some off-field issues, including his Mom’s battle with cancer (he left camp this week to be with her).
Tellez scuffled all season long at the plate. Tellez usually works the count and sees a lot of pitches, but he rarely looked comfortable last year, and did not have the volume of quality ABs he usually has.
Tellez will return to Buffalo this year.
16. Riley Adams
One of the best athletes in an organization stocked with them, Adams was the leader of the title-winning Vancouver squad after being selected in the 3rd round of the 2017 draft.
A bat-first player, Adams won some raves for his pitch calling and handling of Pitchers. He does have a plus arm and good pop time, but his framing and blocking skills still need developing.
Adams will head to Lansing to begin 2018.
17. Carlos Ramirez
The converted OF was lights out in relief at two levels before making his MLB debut last September. Ramirez was not scored upon until his 8th appearance, putting him solidly in the mix for a bullpen job this spring.
If Ramirez doesn’t earn a spot on the 25-man, he’ll head to Buffalo. Ramirez will no doubt become familiar with landmarks like the Burlington Skyway Bridge, and that rusting old ship near St Catharines this summer as he makes the trip up the QEW multiple times.
18. Ryan Noda
Noda’s draft stock dipped after a mediocre college season last year, but he tore a swath through Appalachian League pitching in 2017, leading the league in Average, OBP, and Slugging.
Noda was sent to the Appy because of the presence of Kacy Clemens, taken several rounds ahead of him. The pair should share time at 1B and DH at Lansing this year – Noda can play the corner OF spots as well.
19. Kevin Smith
Like Noda, Smith was sent to Bluefield last summer because Warmoth was ahead of him.
Smith has excellent defensive skills, and his bat proved adequate last year. Like most players in his position, Smith needs to play every day, and will do so at Lansing this year.
20. Hagen Danner
Danner was a storied prep player as both a Catcher and a Pitcher, and was the Blue Jays 2nd round pick in June.
The Blue Jays had him focus on Catching last year, and he struggled at the bat in the GCL as he adjusted to pro pitching.
Danner’s is an interesting situation. His development would be accelerated by playing every day, but it’s uncertain as to whether he’s ready for that role. As a result, he could open the season in Lansing come April, or stay in Florida for Extended Spring Training, and head to Vancouver once their season opens in June. The latter option seems the most likely.
21. McGregory Contreras
A $10K IFA in 2015, Contreras has defied the odds by reaching the Appy League, where he was ranked the 19th best prospect by Baseball America.
Contreras has what one Appy Manager called, “sneaky power,” which has yet to translate into game action, but his BP sessions suggest future pop.
A toolsy OF who has some pitch recognition issues, Contreras probably showed enough last year to skip Vancouver in favour of Lansing this year.
22. Leonardo Jimenez
Assistant GM Tinnish heaped praise on the Panamanian in a conversation last fall:
A really, really great kid…(He’s) bilingual, great make up, ultra young in the class – a late May birthday – he really has lead-off or #2 hole potential….if you asked me right now who has a chance to play SS in our system, Leo would be at the top of that list. The way the body moves, the way the arm works, the instincts, he’s a really good, future upside defender.
Jimenez likely starts in the GCL, but could move quickly.
23. Kevin Vicuna
A prized 2014 IFA, the skinny (6’/140) Vicuna might have to run around in the shower in order to get wet, but he put up decent numbers at Vancouver last year, earning a late season promotion to Lansing.
It may be hard to find playing time for Vicuna, but he’s a useful middle infielder. A return to Lansing is likely.
24. Maximo Castillo
Castillo more than held his own as an 18-year-old in under the lights play in the Appy League last year.
He has a three-pitch mix that fits a starter’s profile, but fastball command has been an issue. Castillo may be held back in Extended, but probably reaches Lansing by May.
25. Justin Maese, RHP
Shoulder issues caused Maese’s prospect stock to slip after a breakout 2016. If he’s healthy, there’s no reason why he can’t pitch his way back into the prospect picture.
Maese’s calling card is a fastball with heavy sink that tends to produce a lot of groundball outs. Despite his off-year in 2017, he’s still very much in the Blue Jays long-range plans.
Dunedin will likely be his destination once spring training ends.
26. Thomas Pannone, LHP
Acquired in the Smith deal from Cleveland, Pannone does not overpower, but the dude just knows how to pitch. He commands all three of his pitches, and has some deception to his delivery.
He impressed in New Hampshire last year, and will head to Buffalo to start this year. Like Borucki, he may make his MLB debut at some point this season.
27. Jordan Romano, RHP
A personal favourite, I’ve followed Romano and kept in touch with him since his return from Tommy John surgery in 2015.
The GTA native has struck out exactly a batter per inning since making his return in May of 2016. He has a fastball/slider combo that’s capable of missing bats, and he can be very tough on right-handed hitters. The missing piece has been said to be his change-up. If he can develop it, his future as a starter may be secured. If not, Romano could become an effective bullpen arm.
Romano will be in a starter’s role in New Hampshire this year.
28. Jonathan Davis OF
Davis is a versatile, get on base speedster who can play all three OF positions.
He’ll begin the season in Buffalo. With the depth of prospects in the system, he may have trouble getting playing time at the major league level, but he could fill an important role as a versatile fourth Outfielder for some team.
29. Max Pentecost, C/1B/DH
The 2014 1st rounder has had a lengthy injury history, but has shown MLB-level tools when he’s been in the lineup.
Shoulder concerns kept him from being placed on the 40-man last fall, and it was a mild surprise that no team took a flyer on him in the Rule 5.
Pentecost’s development has been impacted by the time he’s missed, but a stretch of good health could see him in Toronto before we know it. He should begin 2018 in New Hampshire, splitting time between three spots in the lineup.
30. Jon Harris, RHP
Harris’ stock tumbled last year when Eastern League hitters squared him up as he caught too much of the strike zone on a regular basis.
The 2015 1st rounder may not have one go-to pitch, but Harris commands all four of his pitches, gets a good downward plane on his fastball, and has proven his durability (76 starts over the past 3 seasons).
Like Reid-Foley, the depth of starters at the top of the system may see Harris repeat New Hampshire to start the season.
It may be hard to believe that we’re less than Russ Martin’s Number away from Opening Day, but it’s coming like a freight train through the dead of winter, which is what those of us in Southern Ontario are in the midst of right now. However, having spent a week in the frozen historical and gastronomical wonderland that is Quebec City, I’m not one to complain.
The Blue Jays have yet to confirm when their minor league players are to report to camp at the Bobby Mattick Complex, but it’s safe to say the dates will be somewhat similar to Oakland’s. The Athletics’ Pitchers and Catchers report on March 3rd, Position Players on the 9th, and their first games will be on the 13th. If you are heading to Florida to watch the Blue Jays in action in March, a little research on your part could land you at the Mattick (or any of the other complexes in the area) for some minor league action. There are usually a pair of games going on at once, and you can sometimes catch a rehabbing MLBer in action. Admission is free.
The Blue Jays have invited 13 non-roster players to Spring Training with the big club. These players will not necessarily be auditioning for a major league job – the purpose of inviting them is to give them a taste of big league life, and to shorten the workdays for the regulars. When asked who made the biggest impression on him two years ago during his first tour of a big league camp, Anthony Alford without hesitation answered Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson. Alford was impressed with their work ethic, and how they went about their daily routine in preparing for the season.
Among the invitees this year are:
P Andrew Case – there was thought that the New Brunswick native would be added to the 40 man roster last fall after a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League, but he was left off, and was not selected in the Rule 5 draft. Case is not a big strikeout guy, but the reliever finished the season at AAA, and it would not be a surprise to see him make his MLB debut this year. He just seems to get guys out wherever he plays.
P Jose Fernandez – the lefty reliever has always had command issues, and struggled at AA last year, but has LOOGY potential.
P Chad Girodo – sidewinding southpaw battled injuries in 2017, and spent the bulk of the year at AAA. Girodo appeared in 14 games for Toronto in 2016.
P Jon Harris – the 2015 1st rounder found too much of the strike zone at AA last year, and Eastern League hitters hit .292 against him. This is a huge year for Harris, as he will be Rule 5 eligible next fall.
P Sean Reid-Foley – Last season was a learning year for the 2014 2nd rounder, who was one of the youngest players in AA. His numbers for 2017 don’t look great at first glance, but he was a very effective Pitcher from mid-May to the end of the season. There are some who suggest his control issues might mean an eventual move to the bullpen, but indications are the Blue Jays have every intention of continuing to use SRF in a starter’s role in Buffalo this year.
P Jordan Romano – the Markham native has long been one of our favourite Blue Jays prospects. He was a regular correspondent during his recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2015, giving insight into the process. He’s been a K/inning guy over the last two seasons as a starter, and while some suggest that with his over-the-top delivery and still-in-development secondaries, he too might profile as a bullpen arm, he’ll continue as a starter in AA this year. You don’t give up on a guy that’s missed that many bats.
P Chris Rowley – was one of the most effective Pitchers in the system last year, and completed his remarkable rise from non-drafted/missed two years due to military service guy to the big leagues last year. Rowley was DFA’d in the fall to make room for the new arrivals on the 40, but he’ll be very much in competition for a big league job this year, with AAA his likely destination. Rowley can start or relieve, and his versatility may come in handy.
P Justin Shafer – the 2014 8th rounder has risen slowly through the system, steadily getting ground ball outs along the way. Converted to relief at AA last year, Shafer has long relief potential.
C Max Pentecost – eyebrows were raised when the 2014 1st rounder was left off the 40-man last fall. The Blue Jays were crossing their fingers that Pentecost’s injury history would allow him to slip through the Rule 5, and their gamble paid off. Many have recommended that the Blue Jays turn Pentecost into an Evan Gattis-like hybrid player, but when you read between the lines of the email responses from Jays execs, the plan is continue to have him Catch on a regular (perhaps not daily) basis.
IF Jason Lebelebijian – the versatile Leb can play all four IF positions, and has spent time in the OF, although he played mostly 2nd and 3rd in Buffalo last year.
IF Tim Lopes – the 5 year MiLB vet came over from the Mariners’ organization last year, and filled a valuable utility role for New Hampshire, appearing in 128 games.
OF J.D. Davis – I have to admit: there was a moment of excitement when a publication confused Davis with underachieving 2012 1st rounder D.J. Davis, who repeated Dunedin last year. This was not the first time someone had made this error, however. DJ had a remarkable 2nd half, putting balls in play in the second half at the best rate of his career, posting a .333/381/.449 August. JD Davis, on the other hand, has risen steadily through the system, and is a get-on-base speedster who can play all three OF positions.
OF Roemon Fields – the speed merchant posted career-best numbers at Buffalo last year (.291/.351/.352), and added 43 steals. Fields’ profile is more of a bottom-of-the-order, 2nd leadoff hitter, but he has clearly established himself as a fringe MLBer.
Add in Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, Rowdy Tellez, and Thomas Pannone, who were added to the 40-man in November, and there will be a lot of first-timers at Spring Training this year.
RHP Nate Pearson may have been in the shadows this year due to his short season after being selected in the 1st round of June’s draft, and with the seasons Vladdy Jr and Bo had, but his rise from high school non-prospect to Baseball America‘s Top 100 is a phenomenal story. The Blue Jays did not roll the dice on Pearson so much as they had done their homework on him, and knew what they were getting. Sam Dykstra of milb.com wrote about it here: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-blue-jays-nate-pearson-prepped-for-takeoff/c-265720346
The Blue Jays Australian Baseball League affiliate, the Canberra Cavalry, are off to the ABL final after a come-from-behind victory over Perth in their best of three semi-final.
To be honest, there hasn’t been a lot to watch from a Blue Jays perspective down under. 1B Connor Panas, fresh off a monster second half in the Florida State League, was shut down for the year at Christmas. Relievers Tayler Saucedo and Dan Lietz have been used in a limited role on a veteran-laden Cavalry staff. Saucedo did get a huge 8th inning double play as the Cavs battled for a playoff spot in their final series of the season.
Canberra hosts Game 1 of the best of three affair against Brisbane on Friday night, with the series switching to Brisbane for the remainder.
Let me just start by saying that I’ve always been a fan of the product of Appleton, WI. Taken in the 16th round in 2013, Jansen epitomized the approach to that annual harvest of talent under former GM Alex Anthopoulos and Scouting Director Blake Parker. Beyond the coveted projectable high school arm, the Blue Jays actively looked for players who were overlooked for various reasons. Maybe injury had scared teams off (in the case of Ryan Borucki), or a college commitment (Daniel Norris), or, in the case of Jansen, the Jays weren’t afraid to take a trip off the beaten path to find players in non-traditional baseball places. An injury his senior year of high school made Jansen even more of a low-profile prospect, but the Blue Jays felt they were getting a prospect who scored high in terms of tools and make up. Conversations with Jansen over the past four seasons have borne that out.
After a season in which he finally managed to stay healthy, Jansen hit his way through three levels, posting a .323/.400/.484 line in the process, and is on the cusp of a big league job.
A word about how more and more MLB teams are viewing the Catching position: teams are coming to understand that a Catcher’s value goes far beyond his batting average. The plethora of posters on various Blue Jays Facebook pages complaining about Russell Martin’s .221 average last year miss the below sea level portion of the iceberg that is Martin’s contribution to the team. From framing pitches, to blocking sliders thrown in the dirt intentionally in order to get a batter to chase, to working with umpires to get calls, to working with Pitchers to build a bond that can’t be found in any other sport, Catchers are the Field Generals of the action on a ball diamond. The decisions they make have an influence on every pitch thrown in an MLB game.
Only the catcher is positioned to see the entire field of play, including the hitter, and it is the catcher who triggers virtually every action by calling the pitches.1 The catcher makes calls based on a complex array of data that he processes in a split second. He must be aware of every aspect of the game at all times, particularly the perceived strengths and weaknesses, as well as preferences and desires, of the hitter (the opponent) and his own teammates. He must keep the score, the inning, and the number of outs in mind. He has to know what the count is2 and what the batter did the last time he was up to bat as well as in prior games. Is the pitcher’s curveball working today? Does the umpire have a loose or a tight strike zone? Does the batter dig in? Is his weight leaning forward or on his heels? Do the runners have large leads, and which way are they leaning? These perceptions, judgments, and decisions run through a catcher’s mind before he calls a pitch. Each decision is critical, because the outcome of the game could turn on any one. The complexity seems daunting. But, like a chess master — or a master of any other talent that involves an opponent and/or a team — catching relies on emotional intelligence and perspective taking, which depend on the thoughts and feelings that run through the medial prefrontal cortex hub.
That takes us far beyond whatever Martin did at the plate last year. With other positions, teams have to weigh whether or not they can carry a glove-first, below-league-average hitter, but that’s not necessarily the case with Catching. Certainly, the Blue Jays and Martin would have liked to have seen more offensive production from him last year, but his value to the team goes far beyond that, often in ways that are difficult to measure.
But as he enters the next-to-last-year on his contract, Martin, who turns 35 next month, is likely in his last months as a full-time backstop. Having appeared in only 91 games last year after averaging 133 in his first two seasons in Toronto, it’s not realistic to expect him to carry a heavy load any more. 120 games might be even a stretch to expect from him.
Which brings in Jansen.
Jansen experimented with sport glasses behind the plate in the Arizona Fall League in 2016, and he found that it helped him pick up pitches better behind the plate. As an added bonus, he was able to develop better pitch recognition, as he could detect spin much better than in his pre-glasses days.
Behind the plate, Jansen has drawn raves since his 2014 season, when he handled a Bluefield staff that included a young Borucki. Despite his size (6’2″), Jansen presents a nice low target, which is especially important for sinker ball Pitchers working down in the zone. Handling Pitchers, calling games, and blocking pitches have long been a strength – because of his size, lateral movement has been a minor issue, but Jansen has the athleticism and work ethic to overcome that.
Jansen is also familiar with the wave of minor league Pitchers who will soon be coming to Toronto, starting with Borucki, who told media at Winterfest this past weekend:
When you move up levels, there’s always that anxiety and you’re a little nervous. When you’ve got a guy back there, especially with Danny, having him in Double-A for my first start and Triple-A, you just have a sense of ease. You just feel comfortable.
Not only has Jansen caught Borucki throughout the minors, he’s also worked extensively with Sean Reid-Foley, T.J. Zeuch, and to a lesser extent, Thomas Pannone. As these youngsters reach the Majors, having a familiar face behind the plate would help ease their transition.
Ordinarily, incumbent backup Luke Maile might be considered to have the inside track on winning the job again this spring. However, his offence was beyond anemic last year (9.5% LD rate), and with the increased load Martin’s back up will have to shoulder this year, it would be hard for any team to carry that weak a bat, even at a premium defensive position.
Jansen could benefit from a season of Martin’s mentoring, and would probably learn more in a part-time role than he could in a full season of AAA. And while he would be hard-pressed to reproduce last year’s breakthrough numbers at the plate, he would bring some offence to the position, and he could also DH on occasion.
It’s been a long road for Jansen. Injuries ended his 2014 season prematurely, and severely curtailed his 2015 and 2016. Healthy for the first time last year, he reached MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 Catching Prospects list this year, checking in at #8. With Martin’s career perhaps starting to wind down, 2018 could represent an excellent chance for his potential successor to start to get some on-the-job training. He could split the load more evenly with Martin next year, and take over the reigns in 2020, when he would just be entering his prime at the age of 25.
Going through Customs, the different currency, and many other subtle day-to-day things are a fact of life for American and Caribbean players who venture north of the border to play for the Blue Jays.
For several years, the Blue Jays have held a January mini-camp at the Rogers Centre for their top minor league players to give them a little more exposure to life in the Great White North. Starting on January 15th, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, DJ Davis, Reese McGuire, Roemon Fields, newly-acquired Taylor Guerreri, Lourdes Gurriel, Danny Jansen, Jason Leblebijian, Thomas Pannone, Ryan Borucki, Max Pentecost, Sean Reid-Foley, and the GTA’s own Jordan Romano will be in Toronto for a series of on-field drills and off-field seminars. The group will be at the Blue Jays first annual Winter Fest that weekend.
When the announcement was made last week, Twitter instantly was full of rumours about Conner Greene, who was not part of this year’s contingent. The rumours suggested Greene was being held back because he was going to be part of a package of players for Pirates star Andrew McCutchen. As has been pointed out, Greene was part of last year’s tour, as were Rowdy Tellez, Anthony Alford, and Richie Urena. Greene’s command issues were a concern last year, but that 100 mph fastball isn’t going anywhere just yet.
In the off-field sessions, players will receive training in dealing with the media, as well as how to deal with situations that might crop up as professional athletes. It sounds like Romano is excited to have some of his fellow prospects to his paren’t basement:
I’ll teach you how to play @CallofDuty while you’re here😎
Jansen, McGuire, Urena, Guerreri, and Pannone are all on the 40-man roster, and will be attending spring training with the big club. The team has not announced which minor leaguers will receive an invite, but that it expected shortly.
It was a memorable season for a guy who follows the Toronto Blue Jays minor league system. Three of the four short season teams made the post season, as did one full season team, bringing home a championship and a co-championship to the organization. I had a first-hand look at Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette opening weekend in Lansing, and finished the campaign with a press box view of Nate Pearson’s start in Vancouver’s final regular season home game. In between, there were plenty of highlights:
1. Vladdy Jr’s Rise to Prominence
One has to go back to the days of Sil Campusano* to find a Blue Jay ranked as high as Vladdy Jr (*Baseball America didn’t start their Top 100 list until 1990 – Campusano was a multiple-times cover boy of the publication in the mid-80s).
Those of us in the know were not surprised that Guerrero is either the top or 2nd-ranked prospect in the game after only two pro seasons. His advanced approach, pitch recognition, and lethal bat speed have the makings of a generational bat.
Guerrero dominated the Midwest League as an 18-year-old, and after a bit of a dip following his promotion to High A Dunedin, he was back to his productive self, leading the D-Jays to the post season.
Vladdy was such a model of consistency this year that it’s hard to pick out one highlight. Was it going 2-4 with a Homer in his first game of Low A? Leading the minors in OBP? Hitting .385/.483/.646 in August? Homering in three straight games that month? Not going more than 3 games without a hit (twice) all season?
Thoughts of Guerrero continuing to climb the minor league ladder have helped to warm up the current record cold Southern Ontario winter.
2. Bo Bichette Flirts with .400
Advanced stats have taken over with serious baseball fans, but who doesn’t like a good run at baseball’s hallowed .400 mark?
After tearing up the Gulf Coast League the year before, the 2016 2nd rounder picked up exactly where he left off in Lansing. He hit .371 for April, and .388 in May, but not even in a prospect hunter’s wildest dreams did we expect what happened next.
In the first half of June, his average steadily creeped up into the .380s, and then an incredible 7-8 performance in a doubleheader on the 15th put Bichette over the top:
At Bat #1 Facing Cubs’ RHP Duncan Robinson, who stood 3rd in the MWL in ERA entering the night, he took an 0-1 fastball on the outer edge of the plate to right field for his first hit of the game in Lansing’s top of the 1st.
At Bat #2 Robinson clearly wanted no part of Bichette, offering up a steady diet of breaking balls in the top of the 3rd. With the count 2-1, Robinson tried to get a fastball in on Bichette, but missed badly. Bichette hammered it into the gap in Left Centre, driving in a run.
At Bat #3 Bichette led off the top of the sixth, and Robinson continued to avoid giving him fastballs anywhere near the plate. He hung a 2-2 change, and Bichette hammered it into the LF bleachers for his 7th Home Run, touching off a 5-run frame for Lansing.
At Bat #4
After sending 9 men to the plate the previous inning, Bichette led off the top of the 7th, the final frame of Game 1 against reliever Jared Cheek.
This 9 pitch AB may have been his best of the night.
Down 0-2, Bichette fouled off a number of borderline pitches, before Cheek caught too much of the plate with a breaking ball, which Bichette lined into CF for a base hit. His average now stood at .394.
Game 2 At Bat #1 Facing Cubs RHP Erling Moreno, Bichette hit a 2-1 pitch into the hole at short, and beat the off-line throw to first for an infield single.
At Bat #2 Moreno continued the breaking ball regimen. Bichette hammered a mistake fastball all the way to the wall in Right Centre field, raising his average to .399.
At Bat #3 Facing soft-tossing reliever Tyson Miller, Bichette showed some rare impatience, chasing a breaking ball out of the zone, and foul-tipping a low fastball into the Catcher’s mitt for a swinging strikeout. .400 would have to wait.
At Bat #4 In his final at bat of the night, Bichette looped a fastball on the outer half to right field for a base hit, and his average finally reached .400.
A 3-5 night at the plate the following day kept his average at .400, but a slight dip after that saw his average go as “low” as .392, before another hot streak nudged him to .402 on June 28th.
It’s hard to remember such an individual performance in five years of following the Toronto farm system.
3. NWL title returns to Vancouver
Minor league playoffs are a bit of an afterthought to fans, and a bit of a double-edged sword for MLB executives. Kids are back in school, the weather has cooled, and some teams struggle to draw the crowds they had in warmer days. For the front-office types, they certainly want their prospects to learn to win together on their way up the minor league rungs, but they certainly must hold their breath and hope injuries don’t take place in games that don’t matter much in the larger scheme of things.
Canadians fans couldn’t be blamed for being spoiled; titles in the first three seasons as a Blue Jays affiliate, and a trip to the finals in the fourth meant that fans in the Lower Mainland could reasonably expect competitive teams every year.
Except that 2015 and 2016 were lean years, and the team missed the post-season. Despite that, C’s fans continued to pass through the turnstiles at venerable old Nat Bailey Stadium in record numbers, giving Blue Jays prospects an incredible atmosphere to play their home games in.
That loyalty was rewarded in 2017, as top draft picks Logan Warmoth, Nate Pearson, and Riley Adams led the team back to the playoffs. And the 2017 post-season proved to be beyond memorable. The C’s semi-final with Spokane was set to open in Washington State, but a season of wildfires had made the air quality unacceptable, and the series was moved to Vancouver. The Canadians took the first game of the best-of-three behind an outstanding performance by Pearson (see below), and clinched a berth in the finals behind some standout relief pitching from Justin Dillon and Orlando Pascual.
The C’s travelled to Eugene to take on the defending champion Cubs’ affiliate in the final. The teams split the first two games in Oregon, making the 10 hour bus ride to Vancouver after the 2nd game for Game 3, which was slated for the following day. The C’s once again rode their brilliant bullpen (3 ER over 27 IP in the series) to victory in Games 3 and 4.
Dunedin made the playoffs by virtue of finishing with the Florida State League North Division’s 2nd best record, a distant 14.5 games back of the Tampa Yankees.
With Hurricane Irma bearing down on the Sunshine State, the league decided to declare the winners of the two divisions co-champions, while everyone packed up and got ready to get out of Dodge.
Dunedin hosted Game 1 of the best of three affair, and dropped a heartbreaking, extra-innings loss to Tampa after scoring 5 runs in the bottom of the 1st.
The D-Jays’ backs were clearly up against the wall for Game 2, which was played in Tampa, where Dunedin had lost 7 of 10 on the season to the Yankees. And if they prevailed in Game 2, the 3rd and deciding game would take place minutes after – so, if they wanted to win the series and a share of the league title, the D-Jays would have to sweep a doubleheader in Tampa.
Dunedin easily took Game 1 by a score of 4-1, behind 6+ innings of solid work by Markham, ON native Jordan Romano. Romano, who finished 2nd in the FSL in Ks, failed to fan a batter on the night, but he pitched well enough to turn a lead over to Kirby Snead, who pitched 2.1 scoreless innings to preserve the win.
In the final game, TJ Zeuch took to the mound for Dunedin. Zeuch had spent much of the summer on the DL, and was making only his second start since his return. Pitching on three days’ rest, Zeuch gave up only one hit over four innings. Dunedin had given Zeuch a one-run lead in the 2nd, but Tampa tied it in the 4th, and took the lead in the 5th. Dunedin tied the game up in the 7th on a Home Run by Toronto’s own Connor Panas.
Fast forward to Dunedin’s top of the 9th. With a runner on and two outs, OF Edward Olivares singled, followed by a single to left by Jake Thomas, scoring the go-ahead run. A bloop Double down the LF line by DJ Davis brought home both Olivares and Thomas, providing insurance for the D-Jays. Tampa scored a run in the bottom of the 9th, but Dunedin held on to win their first FSL Championship.
5. Nate Pearson Fans 10 in Playoff Game
NWL hitters were simply overwhelmed by the Blue Jays 1st round choice this summer. The earned runs he gave up in his last regular season start were the first he had given up since he joined Vancouver in July – he had yet to even allow a runner past 2nd prior to that.
Pearson came back in the playoffs with a vengeance, tossing a dominant 10 strikeout effort in 4 innings against Spokane in Game 1 of the C’s semi-final series. After an error allowed the leadoff hitter to reach in the 1st, Pearson set the side down on 9 pitches. Pearson fanned the side in the 2nd, working around an error of his own, as well as the 3rd, sandwiching the Ks around a walk and a single. Pearson lost the strike zone in the 4th, issuing three straight 4-ball walks after getting two quick outs. He regrouped and fanned the final batter of the inning to end his night.
Pearson’s performance reminded C’s fans of a similarly dominant effort by a 17-year-old Roberto Osuna in 2012. Osuna fanned 13 over 5 innings in his NWL debut.
6. Danny Jansen’s Big Night
Jansen burst onto the prospect radar in 2017. A season of good health, and new eyewear obtained in the Arizona Fall League allowed Jansen to post a .323/.400/.484 line at three levels.
Jansen went a career-best 4-4 for Buffalo in late August. After hitting a Single, Home Run, and Triple in his previous three ABs, Jansen came up in the 9th needing a Double to complete the cycle. Jansen cranked his 2nd longball of the night, falling short of the cycle, but sparking the Bisons to a four-run 9th, and a come from behind W.
7. Anthony Alford’s Sizzling Start
Alford had a breakthrough season in 2015 after abandoning his pro football dreams in order to focus on baseball. A knee injury and a concussion suffered in an extra-inning OF collision upon his return set him back further, and whispers about his injury history began to surface.
Alford rode a successful Arizona Fall League campaign into 2017, and he got off to a scorching start, hitting .356/.427/.507 in April at AA. Maintaining that hot start proved difficult, and Alford cooled off in May, but still got on base at almost a 40% clip. Alford made his MLB debut that month, but broke his wrist, sending him back to the DL for six weeks.
Alford will very much be in contention for an MLB job this spring. That hot April last year gave a glimpse into his work-the-count, use the whole field, game-changing speed on the base paths potential.
8. Ryan Noda’s July
The 15th round draft pick saw his stock slip after a mediocre college season. Noda laid waste to Appalachian League Pitching on his way to an MVP season, the highlight of which was a video game number-like July, in which he bashed his way to a .444/.580/.689 line.
Noda cooled off after that stretch, but his other-worldly July was enough for him to lead the Appy in Runs, Total Bases, Average, OBP, and Slugging. Noda won’t be able to duplicate those numbers in full season ball, but it was fun checking Bluefield’s box scores every night for a month – here’s a brief sample:
9. Ryan Borucki’s AA debut
It’s hard to believe that 15 months earlier, the southpaw was sent down to Lansing from Dunedin because Florida State League hitters had been hitting him hard and often.
But Borucki, who knows a thing or two about battling back from adversity (injuries cost him most of two of his first three pro seasons), refined his command, added some deception to his delivery, and came to rely on a change-up that’s already Major League-ready.
After repeating Dunedin to begin 2017, he earned a late July promotion to New Hampshire, and was masterful in his Eastern League debut, keeping hitters off-balance while tossing 7 shutout innings, allowing only two hits and a pair of walks. Two starts later, he fired another 7 scoreless frames, fanning 7.
Barring some roster moves before spring training, Borucki and New Hampshire teammate Thomas Pannone will be among the candidates vying for the fifth starter’s role in the rotation.
10. Yennsy Diaz’ June 15th start
Diaz was just another hard-throwing righthander with control problems when he pitched in Bluefield in 2016. He learned to harness his fastball last spring, and by June had been promoted from Extended to Lansing.
It was in the nightcap of Bichette’s pursuit of .400 doubleheader that Diaz made his second MWL start. And South Bend hitters were all but defenceless against his 98 mph heat. While Bichette was racking up base hits, Diaz was piling up the Ks, recording 8 in 4.2 innings.
While the rest of his season was full of ups and downs, Diaz had several outings where everything was working, and hitters were overmatched against his fastball. Command of his secondaries is still an area requiring improvement, but there’s few things to compare with a Pitcher throwing easy 97 gas.
The Blue Jays added 5 prospects among some additions and subtractions on Monday to get their 40-man roster to 39 players in advance of the deadline to freeze rosters in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft.
Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins admitted that setting a 40-man in advance of the Rule 5 is what he calls a “challenging process.”:
We want to protect and retain all of our talented players, but we need to balance that desire with the need to manage 40-man roster space in the context of other offseason acquisitions and additions
The team elected to promote Catchers Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire, 1B Rowdy Tellez, and Pitchers Conner Greene and Thomas Pannone. “We think very highly of all these players,” he added, “both with respect to their long-term upside, as well as possible near-term ability to impact our major league team.”
On Jansen, who had a breakout offensive season at three levels:
Dan Jansen really impressed us and many around the industry this year, opening the season in A ball and advancing all the way to AAA. Danny had struggled with injuries in past years, but took the initiative to make two key changes following the 2016 season- he addressed some vision issues with an optometrist, and adapted his offensive approach. In a full season this year, he had a .323 average and .884 OPS across 3 levels, and performed particularly well in his late-season promotion to Buffalo. Our field staff and his pitchers have always thought highly of his defensive abilities, and Dan deserves all the credit for accepting the challenge of improving his offensive game and making the strides that he did.
On Greene and Tellez, both of whom had sideways 2017 seasons, but still are held in high regard:
We are highly confident in their abilities on the field, and I know both players well; there is no doubt in my mind that they will use the adversity they faced in 2017 to move forward and improve themselves in 2018.
Pannone was something of a sleeper, acquired in the Joe Smith deadline deal. Even though he had only pitched for the organzation for a month, he made quite an impression:
The reports and information we had on him prior to his acquisition was very exciting, and since he’s joined our club we’ve only been more impressed with him, both on and off the field. We felt that a player with his skills and track record (sub-3.00 ERA in AA) as a left-handed starter would rightly draw a lot of attention in the Rule 5 draft, and we look forward to having him in camp this spring.
McGuire missed much of the season with a knee injury, but his premium receiving skills might have made him an inviting Rule 5 target, even in a back up role:
He had a great offensive year with some strong improvement over his 2016 season, and we feel that his ability to defend behind the plate and interact with our staff gives him a high ceiling. We’re excited to see him build off his 2017 season as he moves into 2018.
The team does risk losing C/1B/DH Max Pentecost, who might be attractive to a team that could use him in a utility role. Just the same, his injury history, in addition to his weak Arizona Fall League showing and the fact that he can’t Catch on back-to-back days led the Blue Jays to roll the dice and leave him off the 40, hoping to sneak him through. Atkins did not refer specifically to Pentecost, but did acknowledge that the club faced some tough decisions when it came time to decide who to protect:
While we may have been able to add another player or two to our roster, doing so would have impacted our ability to make other decisions and moves later in the offseason. Hopefully we don’t lose any of our un-protected players in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, but if we do, it is a testament to the talent level and depth of our organization.
The Rule 5 draft has undergone a signficant metamorphosis over the years. Once an afterthought at the end of the December Winter Meetings, some teams (like the Blue Jays with Joe Biagini) have been able to find value in baseball’s bargain bin. The draft was originally meant to keep teams from stockpiling young players in the minors. Roberto Clemente, Josh Hamilton, and Johan Santana are three of the most successful picks ever, but the trend until recently has been for only a small amount of players to be selected, with most returned to their original clubs. The Blue Jays, for their part, were regular players in the Rule 5 during the Pat Gillick era, mining the Rule 5 for 1987 MVP George Bell.
Atkins did not indicate if the Blue Jays will be active participants this year. Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again last year, they selected Pitcher Glenn Sparkman from the Royals. Sparkman broke his thumb in spring training, and was shipped back to the Royals after getting hammered in his only Blue Jays appearance.
The Blue Jays added 5 prospects to their 40 man roster today to prevent the possibility of losing them at next month’s Rule 5 draft.
Catchers Reese McGuire and Danny Jansen, 1B Rowdy Tellez, and Pitchers Thomas Pannone and Conner Greene were added. Left unprotect included C/1B/DH Max Pentecost, OF Jonathan Davis, and Ps Andrew Case, Jordan Romano, Francisco Rios, and Angel Perdomo.
The team began clearing space earlier this month by outrighting Bo Schultz, Cesar Valdez, and Darren Ceciliani from the 40. Last week, Leonel Campos, Taylor Cole, Luis Santos, and Raffy Lopez met the same fate. Letting Rob Refsnyder go on waivers today and designating Harold Ramirez and Chris Rowley cleared additional space. In between, Deck McGuire was signed as an MiLB free agent, and Taylor Guerreri was claimed on waivers from the Rays. Acquiring SS Gift Ngoepe from the Pirates for futures brought the roster to 34 as the day progressed.
The 5 who were protected were not much of a surprise. Jansen had a breakout year at three levels, and while McGuire missed a good chunk of the season due to knee surgery, could likely fit into any MLB roster as at least a back up, and showed promise with the bat upon his return. Neither may be quite ready for an MLB job, but both would have likely been claimed.
Greene had his struggles at AA this year, but topped 100 with his fastball on multiple occasions. It will be interesting if the team continues to let him develop as a starter, or if he moves to the bullpen. Pannone, acquired in the Joe Smith deadline deal, was among the league leaders in many Eastern League pitching categories.
Tellez struggled mightily at the plate in AAA this year, and given his bat-first profile, he may have gone through the Rule 5 draft unclaimed. The Blue Jays, obviously, did not want to take that risk, and the promotion of the 40-man has to be seen as a reward to Tellez, as well as a vote of confidence.
If there was a player who may have been protected, it might have been New Brunswick native Case. After capping off as strong season by providing excellent set-up relief for Peoria en route to their Arizona Fall League title, there was talk that he might be protected. Case does not profile as a big strikeout guy, which probably is why he was left off the 40. Similarly, Davis had a strong fall for Peoria, and boosted his stock as a speedy, versatile fourth outfielder. He might be a good fit for a team in need of that commodity. Pentecost did not do much to show that he would be worth stashing on a 25-man for a year. At this point, he has yet to prove he can Catch every day, and he struggled against AFL pitching. It would be a surprise to see him selected.
With the roster now at 39, the Blue Jays have a chance to add a player at the Rule 5.
The Blue Jays made some roster moves ahead of next Saturday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters before December’s Rule 5 draft.
Pitchers Leonel Campos, Luis Santos, and Taylor Cole, along with C Raffy Lopez, were outrighted, taking the roster down to 35. RHP Taylor Guerrieri was claimed after being left off of Tampa’s roster, bringing the number up to 36 for the moment.
The acquisition of Guerreri was an interesting one. The former 1st round pick had been a perennial top prospect, but Tommy John surgery and a 50 game suspension for a drug of abuse derailed his career. His 2016 report from Baseball America:
Guerrieri was limited to only two AAA starts in April before being shut down with elbow soreness, but indications are that he’s healthy and will be ready for spring training. With his velo drop, he doesn’t seem to fit the profile for a conversion to the bullpen, so he likely will serve as AAA starting depth if he’s unable to crack the back of the Blue Jays rotation.
Cole has always been one of our favourite MiLBers. Cole led the minors in strikeouts while pitching for AA New Hampshire in 2014, and was labelled one of baseball’s top fringe prospects by Fangraphs. Injuries and inconsistency have slowed his progress since then, and the 28 year old BYU grad (who did his mission work in Toronto) became an odd man out after making his MLB debut in September.
A Blue Jays source today indicated that pending further roster moves, the team will be adding between 3 to 6 minor league players to the 40 in order to protect them from the rule 5 draft. The cutting of three pitchers would seem to bode well for Conner Greene, Thomas Pannone, Jordan Romano, Andrew Case, and Angel Perdomo. Likewise, outrighting Lopez would appear to be opening up a spot for one (or more) of Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, and Max Pentecost.
Expect more deals to be announced by the Blue Jays over the next week and a half before the roster is finalized.
The Blue Jays have some heavy thinking to do as they prepare to finalize their 40-man roster later this month in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft.
Senior executives and scouts from the organization converged on Toronto last week for meetings to plot the club’s future, with the deadline for finalizing their 40 man coming on November 18th. Players with qualifying years of minor league service who are not placed on the 40 by that date can be claimed by any other MLB team in the Rule 5 on December 14th.
This coming Monday is the deadline for players on the 60-day DL to be reinstated to the 40 man if the team plans to keep them. Bo Schultz, Cesar Valdez, and Darren Ceciliani had been on the 60-day, but were outrighted on Wednesday. Aaron Sanchez, Dalton Pompey, Troy Tulowitzki, and Devon Travis will likely be added before that deadline, which means that the club will be up to 39 players.
There is a large group of minor leaguers who have hit the magic number in terms of years of minor league service that the club will have to decide on:
C – Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire
C/1B – Max Pentecost
1B – Rowdy Tellez
RHP – Conner Greene, Jordan Romano, Francisco Rios, Andrew Case
LHP – Angel Perdomo, Thomas Pannone
And with almost every name on this list, there are question marks. Jansen had a breakout year offensively, and played at three levels, although some of his defensive deficiencies were exposed the higher he moved. McGuire missed a good chunk of the season with a knee injury, and while he’s a quality receiver, there are concerns about his bat.
Pentecost’s health has always been an issue, and while he made a solid return to Catching on a limited basis this season, there is significant doubt as to his ability to play every day at that position. Easily the best athlete in this group, the Blue Jays may have to consider turning him into a hybrid player in order to keep his bat in the lineup.
Of the above three, Pentecost would be the most coveted Rule 5 pick, but he would come with a high degree of uncertaintly. Both Jansen and McGuire could probably step into MLB back up roles right away, but the Rule 5 market for players of their type has not been brisk over the past several seasons.
Tellez had success at every level of his career prior to this one, but he was overhwhelmed by AAA pitching this season. His bat is his primary tool, and when he struggles at the plate with pitch selection like he did this year, it tends to emphasize the relative inadequacies of his other tools. And the Blue Jays, as a result, have a major decision to make about Tellez. At this time last year, this would have been a no-brainer, but coming off a down season and with spaces on the 40 at a premium, will they consider leaving Tellez, who was being talked about as a potential middle-of-the-order bat before this season unprotected?
Greene topped 100 with his fastball multiple times this season, but had an incredibly hard time finding the plate. His BB rate (13.9%) was far and away the highest in the Eastern League, and while there’s room for optimism with the amount of weak contact he generated, he did not miss a lot of bats (8% swinging strike rate) for someone with his heat. The talk about moving Greene to the bullpen is growing, but as Mark Shapiro said in conversation recently, “Most people don’t realize how hard it is to develop Starting Pitchers.” That likely means that Greene will still be given a chance to start. Despite a bit of a sideways 2017, he would be snapped up quickly as a conversion project if he was exposed to the Rule 5.
Greene’s rotation mate at New Hampshire, Thomas Pannone, turned a lot of heads this year prior to and after his acquisition from Cleveland in the Joe Smith deal. Certainly, his stats look better than Greene’s, but the southpaw’s ceiling is not as high.
New Brunswick native Case pitched at three levels this year, ending the season at AAA. He is not a high strikeout guy, but he was very effective in AA, limited Eastern League hitters to a .209 average. He’s pitched well in the Arizona Fall League, too. The Blue Jays surely would not want to part with him, but there are other priorities ahead of him.
Markham, ON native Jordan Romano had a successful season at High A. He began to wear down as the season progressed, but that wasn’t a surprise given that it was the 2015 Tommy John surgery survivor’s first full season. Reports from Florida suggest that Romano had trouble turning a lineup over as the year went on, and might be better suited to a bullpen role. His fastball, which sits 91-95, would no doubt tick up higher, and he could focus on his curve, and drop his fringy change. Romano would be a reach, but he too could be a bullpen conversion project, and might give a team some decent innings in long relief.
6’8″ lefty Angel Perdomo has long teased with the extension and late life he gets on his fastball, complemented by developing secondaries. Perdomo struggled with his command before having his season end in early July. He has long been called a bullpen arm in waiting, and while he could one day be an effective situational reliever, he would be an enormous risk for a team right now.
RHP Francisco Rios had a breakout half season in Lansing last year, but couldn’t duplicate his success a High A or, this year, at AA. Patrick Murphy showed promise and earned a promotion from Lansing to Dunedin this year, but he has a lengthy injury history that has slowed his development.
Unless there are some dramatic moves, the Blue Jays aren’t going be able to protect all of these players from being exposed to the Rule 5 draft. It becomes a question of how much risk they want to take, and how much risk other teams are willing to take. Each draftee costs $100 000, and it the player fails to stay on the drafting team’s 25-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original team for half that price. That’s not a huge risk for teams – the trend of late has been to draft a player, then give him a spring training to see if he can fill a role. San Diego manouvered their way into acquiring the top three picks in last year’s draft, and while the trio of players selected stayed on the 25-man, they had minimal impact. The rebuilding Padres could afford to live with those players for a year, and can now send them back to the minors for further seasoning.
The Blue Jays struck pay dirt with Joe Biagini two years ago. The former Giants’ farmhand was a revelation in 2016, but had difficulty when pressed into a Starting role this year. Toronto had high hopes for last year’s pick, Glenn Sparkman, but he broke his thumb early in spring training. He was hit hard in his one and only MLB appearance this year before being returned to the Royals.
Gazing into the Blue Jays 40-man crystal ball, it’s hard to say exactly who they will protect. Much will depend on how much space the Blue Jays want to create over the next two weeks. Pentecost and Greene appear to be safe bets this year, but the rest is open to speculation.