Time to Take Another Look at Tellez

Lost in the hype of the Blue Jays farm system being named one of the top ones in the game this summer has been the play of Buffalo 1B Rowdy Tellez over the past two months.

Seemingly headed for Toronto after bashing 23 HRs as a 21-year-old in AA two seasons ago, Tellez appeared headed for DFA status after a disappointing start to 2018, following and equally below expectations 2017 campaign.

Hot on the heels of a .309/.338/.574 July, Tellez had a pair of hits in Buffalo’s loss last night, raising his average to .455 over his past ten.  In the process, Tellez has raised his average to .278, to go along with a becoming-respectable .786 OPS.

Off-field problems, including his mother’s battle with cancer, had much to do with Tellez’ struggles last year.  After keeping things inside for much of last year, he’s been more open with his teammates and coaches.

On the baseball side, Tellez is not chasing as many pitches out of the strike zone as he did last year.  After showing remarkable patience in the Eastern League, Tellez saw fewer pitches in the heart of the strike zone in AAA last year, and expanded his strike zone as a result.  Frequently finding himself in pitcher’s counts, Tellez wasn’t cranking out the Quality ABs that he was in AA.  Last year, Tellez seemed to frequently take hacks at pitches that left a viewer wondering why he offered at that pitch; his strike zone judgement seems significantly improved of late.

Does this mean that Tellez is poised to be promoted to the big leagues when MLB rosters expand on September 1st?  He’s not a lock with Justin Smoak ensconced at 1B, but with the Blue Jays looking toward the future, perhaps he could take away ABs from DH Kendrys Morales.  Tellez is a bat-first player, and while his numbers of late are promising, his power numbers are still lacking for a player of his type.  Still, if a rebuild is coming, with Tellez running out of options next year and the team far from contention, it wouldn’t hurt to kick the tires on this former top prospect next month.

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Blue Jays Last 10 Prospect Hot Sheet

Hey, folks – time to see who the hottest 5 players were in the Blue Jays farm system over the past week and a half.  This does not necessarily replace the usual Top 10 rankings.

1.  Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Buffalo

Once an enigma wrapped in a riddle shrouded in mystery, Reid-Foley has had a serious coming out party in 2018, and continued his helium ways with two gems over the past week, and was named International League Pitcher of the Week.

On July 17th, SRF allowed one run and as many hits over 6 innings, fanning 5, and followed that up with six scoreless frames on the 22nd, allowing only a pair of hits while striking out 7.  Just as impressive was his (for him) low walk total – 3 – over those two starts.

There are many that suggest that if/when JA Happ is dealt, Reid-Foley will step right into his place on the 40-man and in the rotation.

Not so fast, we say.  Pitch economy still is an issue for Reid-Foley, who has pitched into the 7th inning only 4 times over 20 starts this year.  Yes, you say that pitch counts probably are a factor, and they most assuredly are, and we think that since Thomas Pannone is already on the 40, he may be a suitable replacement for Happ at least in the short term, if the team deems him ready after his return from a PED suspension.  Reid-Foley doesn’t have to be put on the 40 until after the season to avoid the Rule 5, and with this team all but out of a playoff race, it wouldn’t hurt to keep SRF at AAA for the rest of the season.

2.  Jordan Groshans 3B/SS, GCL Jays

The 1st round pick has not disappointed in his pro debut, posting a line of .500/.542/.800 over his last ten, boosting him to an impressive .370/.442/.580 so far in the Gulf Coast League.

With Vancouver and Bluefield both looming as playoff contenders later this summer, it’s highly likely that Groshans will be joining one of those teams.  We look forward to speaking to Scouting Director Steve Sanders about him later this week.

3.  Jordan Romano, RHP, New Hampshire

Romano was named Eastern League Pitcher of the Week after tossing a pair of gems for the Fisher Cats.

The Markham, ON native was the Eastern Division Starter at the EL All Star game, after a 9-0, 2.04 first half.  He’s hit a bit of a wall since then, but after giving up only two Earned Runs over his last two starts over 14.2 IP, he may have found a higher gear.

His second start of the week, facing the Senators’ Harrisburg affiliate, was a thing of beauty.  Romano tossed a career-high 8 innings, giving up no runs, three hits, and fanning a season-high 8.  He retired the final 12 hitters he faced.

Left off the 40 man last fall, the Blue Jays will have a decision to make with Romano this November.  Some teams may be interested in taking a chance on him and converting him to relief if he is exposed to the Rule 5.

4.  Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Buffalo

Once the heir-apparent to the 1B job in Toronto, Tellez’ off and on field difficulties last year led to a disappointing season, and he fell off the prospect radar.

A .370/.400/.889 week and a half, with 4 HRs may not have restored all of Tellez’ former prospect lustre, but surely it’s a step in the right direction.  A current line of .260/.335/.432 still is short of expectations set at the lower levels of this system.

5.  Rodrigo Orozco, OF, Dunedin

He may have been overshadowed by more toolsier players in his six years in the Blue Jays system, but all the Panamanian (.281 career average, .371 OBP)  has done is hit and get on base.

With 10 hits over his past 5 games, including a 4-4 night on July 21st, Orozco slashed .500/.552/.654 over his last 10 games.  With that outburst, Orozco has pushed his average on the season to .303, and has added 14 stolen bases.

Blue Jays GM Atkins on the 40-man Roster Additions

The Blue Jays added 5 prospects among some additions and subtractions on Monday to get their 40-man roster to 39 players in advance of the deadline to freeze rosters in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft.

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins admitted that setting a 40-man in advance of the Rule 5 is what he calls a “challenging process.”:

 We want to protect and retain all of our talented players, but we need to balance that desire with the need to manage 40-man roster space in the context of other offseason acquisitions and additions

The team elected to promote Catchers Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire, 1B Rowdy Tellez, and Pitchers Conner Greene and Thomas Pannone.  “We think very highly of all these players,” he added, “both with respect to their long-term upside, as well as possible near-term ability to impact our major league team.”

On Jansen, who had a breakout offensive season at three levels:

 Dan Jansen really impressed us and many around the industry this year, opening the season in A ball and advancing all the way to AAA. Danny had struggled with injuries in past years, but took the initiative to make two key changes following the 2016 season- he addressed some vision issues with an optometrist, and adapted his offensive approach. In a full season this year, he had a .323 average and .884 OPS across 3 levels, and performed particularly well in his late-season promotion to Buffalo. Our field staff and his pitchers have always thought highly of his defensive abilities, and Dan deserves all the credit for accepting the challenge of improving his offensive game and making the strides that he did.

On Greene and Tellez, both of whom had sideways 2017 seasons, but still are held in high regard:

We are highly confident in their abilities on the field, and I know both players well; there is no doubt in my mind that they will use the adversity they faced in 2017 to move forward and improve themselves in 2018.

Pannone was something of a sleeper, acquired in the Joe Smith deadline deal.  Even though he had only pitched for the organzation for a month, he made quite an impression:

The reports and information we had on him prior to his acquisition was very exciting, and since he’s joined our club we’ve only been more impressed with him, both on and off the field. We felt that a player with his skills and track record (sub-3.00 ERA in AA) as a left-handed starter would rightly draw a lot of attention in the Rule 5 draft, and we look forward to having him in camp this spring.

McGuire missed much of the season with a knee injury, but his premium receiving skills might have made him an inviting Rule 5 target, even in a back up role:

  He had a great offensive year with some strong improvement over his 2016 season, and we feel that his ability to defend behind the plate and interact with our staff gives him a high ceiling. We’re excited to see him build off his 2017 season as he moves into 2018.

The team does risk losing C/1B/DH Max Pentecost, who might be attractive to a team that could use him in a utility role.  Just the same, his injury history, in addition to his weak Arizona Fall League showing and the fact that he can’t Catch on back-to-back days led the Blue Jays to roll the dice and leave him off the 40, hoping to sneak him through.  Atkins did not refer specifically to Pentecost, but did acknowledge that the club faced some tough decisions when it came time to decide who to protect:

 While we may have been able to add another player or two to our roster, doing so would have impacted our ability to make other decisions and moves later in the offseason. Hopefully we don’t lose any of our un-protected players in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, but if we do, it is a testament to the talent level and depth of our organization.

The Rule 5 draft has undergone a signficant metamorphosis over the years.  Once an afterthought at the end of the December Winter Meetings, some teams (like the Blue Jays with Joe Biagini) have been able to find value in baseball’s bargain bin.  The draft was originally meant to keep teams from stockpiling young players in the minors.  Roberto Clemente, Josh Hamilton, and Johan Santana  are three of the most successful picks ever, but the trend until recently has been for only a small amount of players to be selected, with most returned to their original clubs.  The Blue Jays, for their part, were regular players in the Rule 5 during the Pat Gillick era, mining the Rule 5 for 1987 MVP George Bell. 

Atkins did not indicate if the Blue Jays will be active participants this year.  Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again last year, they selected Pitcher Glenn Sparkman from the Royals.  Sparkman broke his thumb in spring training, and was shipped back to the Royals after getting hammered in his only Blue Jays appearance.

This year’s Rule 5 draft takes place on December 10th.  JJ Cooper of Baseball America wrote an excellent piece about the actual draft day process last year.  

Blue Jays Add Prospects at 40-Man Deadline

The Blue Jays added 5 prospects to their 40 man roster today to prevent the possibility of losing them at next month’s Rule 5 draft.

Catchers Reese McGuire and Danny Jansen, 1B Rowdy Tellez, and Pitchers Thomas Pannone and Conner Greene were added.  Left unprotect included C/1B/DH Max Pentecost, OF Jonathan Davis, and Ps Andrew Case, Jordan Romano, Francisco Rios, and Angel Perdomo.

The team began clearing space earlier this month by outrighting Bo Schultz, Cesar Valdez, and Darren Ceciliani from the 40.  Last week, Leonel Campos, Taylor Cole, Luis Santos, and Raffy Lopez met the same fate.  Letting Rob Refsnyder go on waivers today and designating Harold Ramirez and Chris Rowley cleared additional space.  In between, Deck McGuire was signed as an MiLB free agent, and Taylor Guerreri was claimed on waivers from the Rays.  Acquiring SS Gift Ngoepe from the Pirates for futures brought the roster to 34 as the day progressed.

The 5 who were protected were not much of a surprise.  Jansen had a breakout year at three levels, and while McGuire missed a good chunk of the season due to knee surgery, could likely fit into any MLB roster as at least a back up, and showed promise with the bat upon his return.  Neither may be quite ready for an MLB job, but both would have likely been claimed.

Greene had his struggles at AA this year, but topped 100 with his fastball on multiple occasions.  It will be interesting if the team continues to let him develop as a starter, or if he moves to the bullpen.  Pannone, acquired in the Joe Smith deadline deal, was among the league leaders in many Eastern League pitching categories.

Tellez struggled mightily at the plate in AAA this year, and given his bat-first profile, he may have gone through the Rule 5 draft unclaimed.  The Blue Jays, obviously, did not want to take that risk, and the promotion of the 40-man has to be seen as a reward to Tellez, as well as a vote of confidence.

If there was a player who may have been protected, it might have been New Brunswick native Case.  After capping off as strong season by providing excellent set-up relief for Peoria en route to their Arizona Fall League title, there was talk that he might be protected.  Case does not profile as a big strikeout guy, which probably is why he was left off the 40.  Similarly, Davis had a strong fall for Peoria, and boosted his stock as a speedy, versatile fourth outfielder.  He might be a good fit for a team in need of that commodity.  Pentecost did not do much to show that he would be worth stashing on a 25-man for a year.  At this point, he has yet to prove he can Catch every day, and he struggled against AFL pitching.  It would be a surprise to see him selected.

With the roster now at 39, the Blue Jays have a chance to add a player at the Rule 5.

 

 

 

 

 

Blue Jays Face Decisions Ahead of Rule 5 Draft

The Blue Jays have some heavy thinking to do as they prepare to finalize their 40-man roster later this month in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft.

Senior executives and scouts from the organization converged on Toronto last week for meetings to plot the club’s future, with the deadline for finalizing their 40 man coming on November 18th.  Players with qualifying years of minor league service who are not placed on the 40 by that date can be claimed by any other MLB team in the Rule 5 on December 14th.

This coming Monday is the deadline for players on the 60-day DL to be reinstated to the 40 man if the team plans to keep them.  Bo Schultz, Cesar Valdez, and Darren Ceciliani had been on the 60-day, but were outrighted on Wednesday.  Aaron Sanchez, Dalton Pompey, Troy Tulowitzki, and Devon Travis will likely be added before that deadline, which means that the club will be up to 39 players.

There is a large group of minor leaguers who have hit the magic number in terms of years of minor league service that the club will have to decide on:

C – Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire

C/1B – Max Pentecost

1B – Rowdy Tellez

RHP – Conner Greene, Jordan Romano, Francisco Rios, Andrew Case

LHP – Angel Perdomo, Thomas Pannone

And with almost every name on this list, there are question marks.  Jansen had a breakout year offensively, and played at three levels, although some of his defensive deficiencies were exposed the higher he moved.  McGuire missed a good chunk of the season with a knee injury, and while he’s a quality receiver, there are concerns about his bat.

Pentecost’s health has always been an issue, and while he made a solid return to Catching on a limited basis this season, there is significant doubt as to his ability to play every day at that position.  Easily the best athlete in this group, the Blue Jays may have to consider turning him into a hybrid player in order to keep his bat in the lineup.

Of the above three, Pentecost would be the most coveted Rule 5 pick, but he would come with a high degree of uncertaintly.  Both Jansen and McGuire could probably step into MLB back up roles right away, but the Rule 5 market for players of their type has not been brisk over the past several seasons.

Tellez had success at every level of his career prior to this one, but he was overhwhelmed by AAA pitching this season.  His bat is his primary tool, and when he struggles at the plate with pitch selection like he did this year, it tends to emphasize the relative inadequacies of his other tools.  And the Blue Jays, as a result, have a major decision to make about Tellez.  At this time last year, this would have been a no-brainer, but coming off a down season and with spaces on the 40 at a premium, will they consider leaving Tellez, who was being talked about as a potential middle-of-the-order bat before this season unprotected?

Greene topped 100 with his fastball multiple times this season, but had an incredibly hard time finding the plate.  His BB rate (13.9%) was far and away the highest in the Eastern League, and while there’s room for optimism with the amount of weak contact he generated, he did not miss a lot of bats (8% swinging strike rate) for someone with his heat.  The talk about moving Greene to the bullpen is growing, but as Mark Shapiro said in conversation recently, “Most people don’t realize how hard it is to develop Starting Pitchers.”  That likely means that Greene will still be given a chance to start.  Despite a bit of a sideways 2017, he would be snapped up quickly as a conversion project if he was exposed to the Rule 5.

Greene’s rotation mate at New Hampshire, Thomas Pannone, turned a lot of heads this year prior to and after his acquisition from Cleveland in the Joe Smith deal.  Certainly, his stats look better than Greene’s, but the southpaw’s ceiling is not as high.

New Brunswick native Case pitched at three levels this year, ending the season at AAA.  He is not a high strikeout guy, but he was very effective in AA, limited Eastern League hitters to a .209 average.  He’s pitched well in the Arizona Fall League, too.  The Blue Jays surely would not want to part with him, but there are other priorities ahead of him.

Markham, ON native Jordan Romano had a successful season at High A.  He began to wear down as the season progressed, but that wasn’t a surprise given that it was the 2015 Tommy John surgery survivor’s first full season.  Reports from Florida suggest that Romano had trouble turning a lineup over as the year went on, and might be better suited to a bullpen role.  His fastball, which sits 91-95, would no doubt tick up higher, and he could focus on his curve, and drop his fringy change.  Romano would be a reach, but he too could be a bullpen conversion project, and might give a team some decent innings in long relief.

6’8″ lefty Angel Perdomo has long teased with the extension and late life he gets on his fastball, complemented by developing secondaries.  Perdomo struggled with his command before having his season end in early July.  He has long been called a bullpen arm in waiting, and while he could one day be an effective situational reliever, he would be an enormous risk for a team right now.

RHP Francisco Rios had a breakout half season in Lansing last year, but couldn’t duplicate his success a High A or, this year, at AA.  Patrick Murphy showed promise and earned a promotion from Lansing to Dunedin this year, but he has a lengthy injury history that has slowed his development.

Unless there are some dramatic moves, the Blue Jays aren’t going be able to protect all of these players from being exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  It becomes a question of how much risk they want to take, and how much risk other teams are willing to take.  Each draftee costs $100 000, and it the player fails to stay on the drafting team’s 25-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original team for half that price.  That’s not a huge risk for teams – the trend of late has been to draft a player, then give him a spring training to see if he can fill a role.  San Diego manouvered their way into acquiring the top three picks in last year’s draft, and while the trio of players selected stayed on the 25-man, they had minimal impact.  The rebuilding Padres could afford to live with those players for a year, and can now send them back to the minors for further seasoning.

The Blue Jays struck pay dirt with Joe Biagini two years ago.  The former Giants’ farmhand was a revelation in 2016, but had difficulty when pressed into a Starting role this year.  Toronto had high hopes for last year’s pick, Glenn Sparkman, but he broke his thumb early in spring training.  He was hit hard in his one and only MLB appearance this year before being returned to the Royals.

Gazing into the Blue Jays 40-man crystal ball, it’s hard to say exactly who they will protect.  Much will depend on how much space the Blue Jays want to create over the next two weeks.  Pentecost and Greene appear to be safe bets this year, but the rest is open to speculation.